Interesting analysis of the Benchmark Data from the Website User Guide

[Orb Farms]

So I have been playing around with my best friend in the world (Microsoft Excel.....shows how much of a loser I am), and I arrived at some interesting conclusions:

The "HELP" Section states one specific section I happen to disagree with (The section pasted below, in blue), and I would love to have a discussion about it...
In PARTICULAR, I would love to entertain thoughts specific to the two statements in red below, again all of this pasted from the HELP section:


The first split 22.02 will tell you how fast your horse gets out of the gate .
anything under 22.20 will show that your horse is a sprinter
Anything over 22.20 looks like your horse might want to run a longer distance .

The Second split 44.77 will tell you if your horse is a sprinter,classic or route horse.
Anything under 44.95 will show that your horse is a sprinter
Anything over 44.95 looks like your horse might want to run a longer distance.


.....I went through my best 200 horses, 120, or 60% of which were sprinters..... What I am curious about, is that my success rate does not necessarily square up with the ONE following statement:

Anything over 44.95 looks like your horse might want to run a longer distance.

So, of the 120 sprinters I pulled from my best 200 horses (I don't have completely specific data going all the way back to season 31, 32, or 33.....my data starts in season 34), I learned the following information (Again, relative to the entire site, this is based SOLELY off my horses, and my horses are but a SMALL sample, compared to the thousands perhaps many thousands bred in the same time frame):

Of my 120 Sprinters in question, I threw out the 20 horses that were "AUTOMATIC" 4-Furlong horses, who could MAYBE cash an occasional 5 Furlong check....These are truly sprinters who really behave more like quarter horses; they are super short "Specialists", so I threw them out.....because I am mostly interested in the TRUE 5F, 6F, and occasional 7F sprinters. So, I got down to a nice, round number of 100 horses...and here is what I found:

100 Horse Analysis:

1. Of the 100 horses I am calling "sprinters", the ones with the best 6 Furlong workouts I owned, 64 of them ran below 22.20 for the first split

2. of those 64/100 horses who I deemed sprinters, having first splits at, near, or under 22.20, they had their best workout AND racing success at 6 F (and occasionally even 5 F).

3. *** Of ALL 100 Sprinters , only 41 horses ran a 2nd sprint split UNDER 44.95; many were "right near the number", but many were also a good .20 over); Less than half, or 41% "Fit"

4. In summary, I believe (unless am mistaken, but I feel like I performed well in this period)....that the 2nd split listed is a bit skewed, due to what I deem "The 4-Furlong Factor"

5. Conclusion - Horses who have been worked through most veteran systems, and run their best at 6 Furlongs.....then DIE at any longer distance (EVEN with changing tack, jockey instructions, etc... to the extent that the final quarter time is WELL over 24 seconds) may STILL be sprinters if they run a 2nd split slower than 44.95

My math determined that horses who fit this criteria on average can run up to about a 45.10, and still be considered a VERY successful sprinter.

Granted, in Defense of the user Guide, it DOES state "Your horse MIGHT want a longer distance"; I am merely pointing out that I believe <44.95 is just a tad aggressive to dismiss a horse as a non-sprinter, and I feel like a horse running sub 45.10 2nd splits CAN still be very good sprinters, particularly at 6F.


.....Would love to hear your thoughts!

My very best as always,

Orb

[Nut Brown Racing]

Sounds very much like the real-world problem of figuring out that your horse is a late-running sprinter. If the horse has great speed out of the gate it's easier to tell. If they are going to run their best in the last half mile after a quarter mile warm up, not so easy to see at first. And pace and race setup are huge. Most late-running sprinters need the pace up front to be quick so the horses can come back to them, and they also need a way thru. The "shorter" your late-running sprinter is, the less chance he/she can bear the strain of going round the outside and the more critical to find an opening.

There is additional math that can be run using the splits as the inputs. This can help. And no, I'm not going to describe the process.

[Tockyocky Racing]

There is no 4F factor. The final 2F is all that matters when comparing it to the first 2F. Additionally the 2nd split is the least important of the 3 when racing as so many factors impact the 4F split that you can never expect to recreate a time while racing. Horses have a gate speed that has a high impact on race lengths and they have closing speed that the race engine kicks in as part of the attributes which we actually do see on the final turn.

All the other stuff is simply common sense that didn't require a spreadsheet and the majority of the time u can tell by the last 2F if the horse is a rout or not that is capable of winning different grades of racing.

If you are not considering 4F as a sprint then we are only talking 5F and 6F as 7F is not a sprint on this game.

Maybe the website guide could use a tweak who knows how long thats been there...but again its a guide and it guides in the correct direction..


If you want to do a real study....break down the profitable correlation between scratching all of your horses that don't pull an inside gate and the loss of the nom fee% vs races you stay in and win. Pissing away money to inflate stats is quite a concept. I would add that any statistics are skewed based on a philosophy of scratching horses with posts #3 on out. The best trainers here win anywhere at any time. Bush League!

[Orb Farms]

No I get what you are saying, and yes, there is another element to late-running sprinters.....

And, there is one more element...... SOME horses show modest workout splits, but their race engine code may have them as carrying very good gate speed

Thus, I think we can all cite horses who might run something like a 22.25 first split, but in the actual race, they jump out early, even if they are not in Gates 1 and 2, where they get a boost.

Excellent point!

Orb

[Orb Farms]

And Toc just cannot resist dismissing anything that is not authored by his ego....

LMAO, thanks Toc as always,

Oh, and i scratched two horses all season genius....One was scratched to due to other reasons....

You should read my posts and try to learn how not to lose 80% of your career races, and then when you reinvest thousands into the create pool, you might get an average earnings per race nearer to mine.

"I am a nerd, I study all of the races, I know all of the jockeys and the distances, blah blah".... Sounds like it did not help you crack the top ten in earnings, win%, earnings per race, or anything other than your own worldview that you somehow are among the top 20 trainers of all-time.....which again is debatable, based on the data over the last 30 seasons...


[EDIT], Oh, and for creating a tantrum post "Toc is leaving", you have done two things:
1. Buy 30 more creates
2. List middling geldings and a FEW above average horses at inflated prices, horses who have run their normal "heightened first two race bounce"


Orb

[Tockyocky Racing]

Envy is a bitch

I haven't bred or purchased any horses at all and Brian can vouch for that. I don't deposit so u keep harping on things that are completely false and misleading.

Fact of the matter is If i raced the last 8 seasons I would smash all that chit u talk about. It doesn't bother me....race on and prosper.


If you post a bunch of statistical nonsense on a forum i think its pretty common for someone to reply. This is elementary stuff. Relax

[Orb Farms]

Nut Brown,

When I speak of the legitimate "4 Furlong Factor", I am referring to the horses we get who run something like 21.70 44.00 1.09.70

These horses, no matter how many times I got them, and tried EVERY possible combination to improve them beyond 5 Furlongs, simply will not run past 5 furlongs, and they have success at 4 furlongs, VERY marginal success at 5 Furlongs, and they are completely un-raceable at 6 F or longer.

That is the 4 Furlong factor I speak of, Nut Brown Racing....

Orb

[Tockyocky Racing]

Gate speed is gate speed...the attribute does not change for the race engine. There are other factors in the code that impact gate speed but the horse's actual attribute does not change.

True on ur 4F points but its also very unlikely that the horse hits 5F either. The final 2 F split at 6F will tell the story that the horse does not close. There is a close at every distance and that is why the 5F will be poor. You would think that the horse would hit 5F with 44.60 split but it doesnt transfer over

[Orb Farms]

Envy is a bitch

I haven't bred or purchased any horses at all and Brian can vouch for that. I don't deposit so u keep harping on things that are completely false and misleading.

Fact of the matter is If i raced the last 8 seasons I would smash all that chit u talk about. It doesn't bother me....race on and prosper.


If you post a bunch of statistical nonsense on a forum i think its pretty common for someone to reply. This is elementary stuff. Relax

I am just looking at the daily report, clicking back each day which shows your horses.....We all assume they didn't just appear in your stable....We all have to buy them sir. You bought them at some point, like the rest of us.....

Orb

[Tockyocky Racing]

Orb

I think you need to be fair with your constant trolling. Obviously the horses were purchased but they weren't purchased recently. You spew garbage as fact like i purchased 30 horses yesterday. Your words...i'm just saying its false and misleading which then makes people wonder what else u post is false and misleading.

If i buy 100 creates i'm bond to hit some. I can also go 0-40 on creates which I have. Breeding homebreds is a much safer play and this cant be disputed. How I spend credits is really no one's business and no man or woman should be in anyone else's wallet.

[Orb Farms]

The PROBLEM is that Creates - Unnamed ones, have a create sequential number next to them, right?

If I mis-spoke, then I mis-interpreted the sequential numbering system for buying creates, my mistake


Thanks Toc so much for clarifying, and for making that statement sound like I made some egregious slanderous remark....

You just cannot get enough of yourself, and your fan club (Both of them), sound like crickets...

I try to have discussions, KNOWING that I am ok saying I am not the be-all know-all on the site.

You on the other hand, know everything, you just had bad luck with about half your horses in your career not hitting the money, in an average 5.4 horse field

I have every right to discuss my opinions, which I never tout as indisputable fact.... I am not sure why you feel the need to inject your nonsense into every one of my legitimate discussions..

I know - it is ORB ENVY. You cannot get over the fact that I trampled you in every conceivable category there is......

[Cold Dog Soup]

The help section, for the most part is written to help new players get a rough grasp on the game. Some in there may be debatable after you've been playing a while. Just like I'm sure there's a suggestion to do 11F LPG's to reset meters. After a while you learn that may not always be the best remedy for meter but simplifies it for new players. I dont remember if I wrote it or not but the section Orb quoted looks like something I would have written. Please take it with a grain of simplicity geared towards new players to start them on the right path as they try to understand splits and the ability to branch out later with their own plan of attack on the game.

[Tockyocky Racing]

lol

You will never be on my level....like a bug on the windshield Everyone here knows it

That is good enough for me.

[Orb Farms]

Sequential numbering system

So am I wrong, or did you mis-speak?

I admit, I could be wrong, but I would like to know....

Unnamed52919	-Created-	-Created-	xxxxx	1:09.67
Unnamed52921	-Created-	-Created-	xxxxx	1:09.31
Unnamed52922	-Created-	-Created-	xxxxx	1:09.73
Unnamed52926	-Created-	-Created-	xxxxx	1:10.04
Unnamed52927	-Created-	-Created-	xxxxx	1:09.46
Unnamed52929	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.50
Unnamed52930	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.68
Unnamed52931	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.61
Unnamed52933	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.76
Unnamed52934	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing
Unnamed52935	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.84
Unnamed52936	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.59
Unnamed52937	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.42
Unnamed52938	-Created-	-Created-	Tockyocky Racing	1:09.44

[Orb Farms]

The help section, for the most part is written to help new players get a rough grasp on the game. Some in there may be debatable after you've been playing a while. Just like I'm sure there's a suggestion to do 11F LPG's to reset meters. After a while you learn that may not always be the best remedy for meter but simplifies it for new players. I dont remember if I wrote it or not but the section Orb quoted looks like something I would have written. Please take it with a grain of simplicity geared towards new players to start them on the right path as they try to understand splits and the ability to branch out later with their own plan of attack on the game.

I understand Brian, I was just trying to open a discussion, to see if others had similar or different data.

Of course, like all other posts, it was hijacked by frivolous banter, and thus we heretofore lost all semblance of any opportunity for discussion.

At the end of the day, the HELP section and the User Guide are both very well-written; I was just asking about splits from all trainers

Thanks sir,

Orb