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Race 13, Ballyoptic

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  • Race 13, Ballyoptic

    In all my time here i have never seen a horse run like that.

    Hard to believe same horse won MSW running 1.08.08 at first start.

    I think the racing gods are telling me its time for a break

  • #2
    With your permission I would like to explain a bit more about how to avoid this . I will be straight forward , but it might hurt short term ,but might help long term . Let me know if your ok with me trying to explain publicly . Thanks
    Last edited by Lone Star Stables; 01-22-2018, 05:56 PM.
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    • #3
      Yes please do

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      • #4
        The Simplest answer is Breeding .

        ​The Facts

        ​Stud Italian- One Good horse who is a router Tiyane ​. And I think the Mare of Tiyane had more to do with the him then the stud . Knighted

        22 runs 10 won 101k in earnings

        the other 6 offsprings

        ​72 races 11 wins and 70k in earnings .

        ​All colts needed to be gelded to produce racers . out of the 11 wins 6 were 1k claimers and no win above 12k claimer .

        ​The Maiden were he won with a 99 the other 4 horses have raced 41 races with 5 wins . So the competition for the maiden was not top level .

        ​The Mare Sandi Thom


        ​only 3 offspring 32 races with only 4 wins .
        43k earnings in 32 races .Plus all are Geldings

        2 wins in maidens ,1 is a 12k claimer and 1 in a 3k claimer .


        ​Italian might be a good route breeder . I would match with route mares .
        ​I would say he has Good Parents with route tendencies . Match with sprint mares will give you bad horses .
        you also need to finds a route mare with heart Knighted ​ you can tell she has heart by hitting the board on 29 of 31 races . she just needs more speed and stamina to be a top mare . If you match her with a top classic/route stud you will get the better outcomes .

        ​The mare I have little confidence in and would not use her anymore .
        Last edited by Lone Star Stables; 01-22-2018, 08:29 PM.
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        • #5
          Hi Dragon/Lone.....ive just watched Race 13. The only time I can recall one of mine racing that poorly was due to bad meters, and I'm certainly not saying that was the case with Ballyoptic. I had my horse in a race but accidently trained it on race morning without thinking. In fact, I wasn't even aware that I had trained it. I watched the race replay when I got out of bed the next morning ( races kicked off at 2.30am here in Australia) and I was horrified at what I saw. My horse jumped from the gates and went with them for half a furlong, and then proceeded to drop right out hopelessly just like Ballyoptic did. It was one of my best horses too, which added to the pain. I just couldn't understand it. BUT, when I discovered what had happened, I very quickly realized my error. All I am trying to say is that it can happen. If that same scenario is not the case with your horse Dragon, then you might have a problem with him, but after watching the replay..my first thoughts are that something similar has happened. I sympathise with you..if my horse can give me a 6f track gallop at 1.08.66, I couldn't care less. I now treat track gallops as rubbish when it comes to speed ability, but they tell us a lot of other stuff regarding our horses. But if it can win a 6f Maiden in 1.08.08 then you should have a genuine reason to feel excited, but not anymore. The biggest "ugly" I find here now is this " first up syndrome ", where horses smash it out of the ball park at their race debut but can't get warm in a 3000/6000k claimer just a handful of starts later. I love the game, its a great recreation for middle aged gentlemen, but I too sometimes feel as though I'm swimming through a pool of muddied water....good luck

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          • #6
            Polaris just called me middle age!

            That's it, I'm done. Stable for sale cheap!

            Jason, owner of Aragon Stables operating out of Perth, Australia

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            • #7
              I'm 55yo with just a few grey hairs, not many yet...hence middle aged! Have a good season champ...the battle begins. You have made a great start while ive been very slow to leave the gates. Been busy with a few other things. I enjoyed the battle last season!

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              • #8
                I want to follow up on this. We’”ve learned that horses have speed and stamina and endurance. Plus strength and heart. If the horse can run 1.08.08 we know the horse has elite levels of those first three traits. So, Lone seems to be suggesting one of three things.

                1.the horse has such little heart and strength that he absoutlely wilts against any worthy foes

                Or

                2. There is some type of consistency factor we don’t know about where poorly bred horses are likely to vary wildly even as to the other matters

                Or

                3. Some horses actually have a life span of one race, and that we should look breeding to predict horse life.

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                • #9
                  Breed, Race, Win, Dump...Repeat.
                  Doing is the best way of saying

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                  • #10
                    well its not true that a horses that runs 1.08.08 has elite endurance and stamina . it has elite speed . and the longer it can maintain that type of speed it would show stamina and endurance . 6f is to short to test for elite endurance and stamina .

                    ​A horse can run 1.09.15 and have elite stamina and endurance . Elite speed actually can harm elite stamina and endurance .

                    ​Elite Strenght is how the horse is effected by the meters . Can a horse WO 1.08.90 with good or bad meters . If it does it has elite Strenght .When I said that Elite Speed could harm Elite Stamina and Endurance - for example If horse has Elite Strenght then it Elite Speed doesn't hurt stamina and endurance as much .

                    The Heart can only be tested vs other horses , A horse will high heart and elite attributes will have a career like 15 -13-2-0 - A horse with low heart and elite attributes will have 15-3-8-2

                    that would be how I best answer question 1 . because all 3 could be true or false . they are different .


                    Hitting the wall is different - part of it is breeding . you can not over come short racing careers that are based on breeding . Look at offspring did they compete for 5 races -10 -25 or 100 races .
                    ​Some will hit the wall after 1 race . I will not say that can not happen , but you can prevent it with great breeding program . A few trainers have a good history with very very few 1 time hits .

                    ​you can shorten the racing career by bad placement - be it distance or competition.

                    ​Its like gas in a car - you fill the tank in two identical cars . One you run at 125 mph and the other at 60 . the one that was pushed burns the fuel faster . or if the car has 1000 ponds of drugs in truck it will last less then the car with out the extra weight of drugs ....


                    ​Of course there is so much grey area that you have to figure out .



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                    • #11
                      Placement and breeding is a very important aspect to the game, I wasn't a believer that breeding played a role before, but I do believe now and it has a major effect in longevity of your horse.


                      ....​Morale plays a huge role.... I'm repeating myself again...

                      ​Horses that don't have good blood lines might produce horses that have 5 to 10 race careers and 1 or 2 wins, once they get lowered into lower claimers the morale meter is starting to tank without regaining any of it ever again.

                      If you see a horse can't produce after 5 starts its time to dump it. Don't get stuck on one race wins or training times.
                      Last edited by Greeko Holdem; 01-22-2018, 10:08 PM.

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                      • #12
                        That last part is very new to me. A horse”s racing career can be shortened by its distance and competition.... I was always under the impression that you couldn’t hurt a horse—That it’s life span depended solely on races and years.
                        This is really interesting.

                        A horse that goes 1.08.08 has Elite attributes. It’s not pure speed because pure speed has to be carried to 1.08.08. Maybe it’s not an elite distance house, but the ability to maintain speed at 6f varies wildly among horses with speed — so I’d still say that horse has at least elite stamina and very good endurance.

                        When I was actually being scientific, I often manipulated to meters or fast horses to have lower speed, consistent with what you implied. Stretching certain horses was much easier with lower speed for obvious reasons. Some horses run better with lower endurance in short races also. But I’ve not seen any/many horses that benefit from low stamina.
                        Last edited by Ryan Express; 01-22-2018, 10:06 PM.

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                        • #13
                          You can hurt the career with bad placement .


                          ​there are so many things that you control as the trainer - you can have a good breeder but match it up poorly and turn it into a bad breeder . you could have a horse that could win 7 - 20k claimers but you race it in alws races and it might never hit the board .
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Lone Star Stables View Post
                            You can hurt the career with bad placement .


                            ​there are so many things that you control as the trainer - you can have a good breeder but match it up poorly and turn it into a bad breeder . you could have a horse that could win 7 - 20k claimers but you race it in alws races and it might never hit the board .
                            Ok. I read your gas-in-the-car analogy to suggest that some races take more gas and therefore shorten a career. But this is more consistent with my understanding. Thanks.

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                            • #15
                              Take a look at Texas Boom

                              https://www.digitaldowns.us/new_breed_sta...cc=1&p1=909212


                              1 for 8 to start her career , morale can be achieved through out this time as well , she went on and won 11 out of 13 that year and was horse of the year, she won the derby , and 3 finals

                              Placement is important. You can either wipe your morale or gain morale.
                              Last edited by Greeko Holdem; 01-22-2018, 10:26 PM.

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