Response to Handicapping in help for new members.....

[Orb Farms]

First, an interesting note.....Gate 1 this morning:13 Races: 7 Wins, 3Place, 2 Show, 1 off the board. NOT unusual, as I look back from 01/01/2018 thru today, but a REAL lop-sided edge this morning, more so than normal even! Post 1 is ideal in a LOT of REAL horse racing, and in some races, tracks, and distances in real racing, it is a true disadvantage. It's part of the game, and I accept it......Just pointing out the obvious fact that we will not see down the column until tomorrow morning, when results are posted on the calendar.


But now to my actual response to the handicapping game, as I am not able to respond on the the thread, perhaps a profile limitation or glitch.....no biggie....

Take a look at the Jockeys

What you will see is that the OVERWHELMING majority of the 2/1 and 3/1 selections have 3 of the available 35 jockeys......and EVEN with that said, it would be higher, but a few of us have "personal jockeys" who we just feel comfortable with as our primary (I noticed I am partial to Gomez and Ortiz, maybe hypothetically TnT has a slight partiality to Castellano, or Trunoble and Jersey have a slight lean to Bridgmohan.

If you see 2/1 or 3/1 odds, the jock will be Sutherland, Curatolo, or Ortiz.......with the exceptions mentioned above. In my judgment, the handicapping game takes jockey record, as the highest probability, and


I really do believe it is at least 3/4 jockey-based, and 1/4 horse based, particularly in this game, where the first 1,2 perhaps even 3 races of a horse's career is the real excitement, before individual horses come back to earth and fall into their respective category of Stakes horse, Allowance-type, high-end claimer, or the residual liquid that funnels out of corner of a dumpster then the overhead hydraulic dumpster truck shakes the half-ton cube back and forth above the cab and into the cavity of the truck, as if it were a rag doll....

Just my personal observations, The handicapping game is very much contingent on the jockey, and the horse is an "also ran" in the odds consideration (no pun intended)

My very best,

Orb

[Trunoble Lodge]

I don't agree that the handicapping is influenced by jockey selection.

Proof.... if you have the top 3 jockeys you mentioned, take them off and replace them with one of the other jocks and you will see that the odds aren't changed. Don't forget to put back the top 3 jock though after your observation.

Norm

[Ms Stables]

I also have been paying attention to the handicap. At first I thought it was money based also as I noticed most of the favorites had won the most money. It is hard to say exactly what it is based on. I do know past results for sure play a big part. I had a horse win two 1k claimers in a row, and I don't think there is a way to go back and check the odds but I'm pretty sure was the long shot the first time and wasn't the favorite for the second. After winning those two I entered her in a 20k claimer and she started as the favorite but was soundly beat by a mile and came in dead last.

I have a colt that won a Division, 20k, then 30k in that order and I am sure wasn't a favorite in any of them. Entered him in the sprint Q race and was either the favorite or maybe the 3-1.

Noticed that the odds don't change once they have been posted though. Whether you change jockeys, instructions or even if another horse is scratched. I agree with Norm that some of it must be something that is hidden mainly because you can have a maiden with unraced horses and it seems to get those right the most. It would be interesting to run some untrained new horses in a race and see what the odds are and who wins. Then other stables claim those horses and train them to see what the training numbers are. Because sometimes I think the training numbers have something to do with it.

Don't think it has as much to do with jockey, instruction or meters as it does past races, workouts and distance. Also money but that comes with winning your previous races.

[Taylorandtaryn]

I look at the odds most days mainly to see if I have put one in and it gets 6-1 or higher because those are usually in the wrong type of race. I have believed that money won is a large determining factor with the odds. Now most of the time with unraced horses I have found it to be pretty much on the money. That being said I am watching with great interest race 46 a D div race where I have two entered one at 6-1 and the other 7-1 both with nice post position. Before looking at the odds I would of felt either would have a decent chance so we shall see. I know I would put real money on them across the board at those odds. lol
Eddie

[Trunoble Lodge]

Hcap is rarely wrong in in same age & gender races. His predictions in multi age/gender races aren't as good because the horse numbers are pre-determined and Hcap isn't influenced by any other factors such as jockey, instruction, weight. He may be influenced by distance but I haven't seen that yet.

So what benefits can we get from him?

Here's an example of a horse of mine.

Ride The Crypto Wave: best 6f work:

22.33 45.24 1:08.77, avg. 1:08.80. Certainly good enough for a cheap maiden.

First start: drew 5 of 6. Hcap odds: 5/1 Ran last
2nd start: drew 2 of 11 Hcap odds: 8/1 Ran 9th.

Obviously, this horse works well but races like a lame duck and not worth following a Q path for him, more likely the claimers.

Another example was Orbs TCR race the other day. Foggy's Gracie Girl was rated as the 2/1 fav. with mine at 3/1. Foggy sent his to the front at a blistering pace but she threw in the towel in the home stretch. Mine hugged the fence and got up close to the line. My point here is, that Foggy should keep Gracie Girl in good races until Hcap says otherwise. It may be just a matter of an instruction change.

Norm

[Greeko Holdem]

Beyer Ratings in previous race results might be the determining factor for the odds, because you will see first time starters are never the favourite , unless they are racing all first time starters then its just random in my opinion.

[Greeko Holdem]

take a look at Race #45

Just not Fair 2 -1 ........ 99 beyer rating 3 times in career
Comfortable Shoes 3-1 .... 99 beyer rating 2 times in career

everyone else has 1 x 99 beyer or less ratings


In other words... average of beyer ratings will determine the odds

[Greeko Holdem]

take a look at Race # 44

#4, 8, 9 10 are the only ones with any races under their belts ... rest are 1st time starters

#4 is 2-1
#8 is 3-1
#9 is 4-1
#10 is 5-1

rest are 1st time starters they are all random odds

the average beyer rating determines the odds

[Trunoble Lodge]

Beyer Ratings in previous race results might be the determining factor for the odds, because you will see first time starters are never the favourite , unless they are racing all first time starters then its just random in my opinion.

Look at the last race tonight. Orb's was rated at 2/1. First starter against 5 others that had previous starts

[Greeko Holdem]

Look at the last race tonight. Orb's was rated at 2/1. First starter against 5 others that had previous starts

Yeah just noticed, very interesting

I have a feeling Orbs horse wasn't 2-1 , it changed when he won

[Greeko Holdem]

odds change after the results... first race tonight at midnight 1 was 2-1 and 2 was 3-1 , look what happened ... # 2 won the race and became 2 -1 and #1 came in 2nd and became 3-1

[Greeko Holdem]

same thing happened in race # 2


before the race

# 1 .. 2-1
# 2 .. 4-1
# 3 .. 5-1
# 4 .. 3-1

after the race

#1.. 2-1
#2 .. 3-1
#3 .. 5-1
#4 .. 4-1

[Greeko Holdem]

Race # 6

none of the odds changed before and after the race

[Taylorandtaryn]

I havent noticed odds changing but maybe...

[Greeko Holdem]

Race 15 .. before race

1 .. 5-1
2.. 2-1
3... 5-1
4.. 4-1
5.. 3-1