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  • #31
    Originally posted by Trunoble Lodge View Post

    ​Now my next theory about horses with 4 white socks......


    Norm
    ISWYDT
    ** at 21:06, Brian joined the Lobby...
    Brian Ta Das...

    https://www.facebook.com/digitaldowns.us
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    • #32
      Heck I pretty good better too after the race is run

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      • #33
        odds do change mine went down to 4-1 with the win

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        • #34
          sounds like everyting is Random ???(;
          SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?


          WAR! WAR! WAR!

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          • #35
            Gentlemen, the odds " handicapping system " is very simple. You have all read way too much into it, and made it much more difficult to assess than what it actually is. It is based on a horse's success, if my investigating is on the money. Iv'e looked at a whole bunch of races for a whole lot of hours today, and here is your answer to what ultimately became a long thread, suggesting there is a fair bit of interest in this topic. In a race, the horse with the highest amount of wins will be 2/1 and the horse with the next highest will be 3/1, and the horse with the next highest will be 4/1....and so on and so on right through to the horse with lowest amount of wins who will be the longshot. Pretty simple really. That's a basic reality. I'm havn't quite worked out what happens when, say, three horses have the same number of wins, but I have worked out that they will almost always be the 2/1,3/1 and 4/1 horses. In a Maiden race, it works the same way but is based on 2nd placings. I would even venture to say that there is absolutely NO speed, heart or form are taken into account when assessing the " odds " for each day....just the amount of wins, with perhaps the amount of STAKES wins factored in, and maybe jockey. This also explains the changing of the figures after a horse wins...it now has an extra victory that is factored in by the " system" straight after the race, therefore altering the pre race odds, lowering them for the horse that won. Ive noticed a few differences to this system, but I can 98% say that I believe the HANDICAPPING is married extremely closely to the amount of victory's a horse has. But its not always the case, and here is an example....Race 5 at Cal tonight (13.15) is a 3000k Claimer. Taryngotstabbed and Taylorsbloodflowing have both won 13 races, while Do The Ribot has 12, next best is Hesler (8) and then Wuheida (3). So, the market should be as follows...Taryn and Taylor at 2/1 and 3/1 ( because they both have 13 wins) followed by Do The Ribot at 4/1 (12 wins), Hesler at 5/1 (8 wins)and then Wuheida at 6/1 (3wins). But it not that way. The betting frame has Do The Ribot at 2/1, Taryngotstabbed at 3/1, Hesler at 4/1 and then Taylorsbloodflowing at 5/1, and I'm very confused by it. The only offering I can give you in this case is that Do The Ribot is 2/1 because he has the most STAKES wins. I am still working on my theory here. While what I am saying is NOT 100% right..i will bet good money that it is extremely close..but I know I am missing something somewhere...

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            • #36
              And just one other little thing about the handicapping. I would not be at all surprised if the barrier position has some impact when horses have equal wins. Here is why...go back to the Eliminator series in the first week of this season. We had about 10 races, all heats in which the winners went into the final, and all heats that contained completely UNRACED horses, so how did the handicapping get calculated if there were NO wins or placings to go by? Was it weights, workout times, jockey selection, maybe trainer position on the standings? if you thought it was any of the previous, you are dead wrong. The were purely calculated on BARRIER POSITION. Being a race caller in real life I have a very good memory. What I found very strange about the Eliminator this season was the handicapping. Did you know that EVERY horse that drew gate 6 in EVERY heat was the 2/1 favourite. Barrier 7 in every race was 3/1, barrier 8 in every race was 4/1. Every heat had exactly the same odds for each gate position. Just a little " food for thought " on this subject...

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              • #37
                and.....I would really like to understand how odds are determined when horses with same amount of wins. I know I am getting very close to the answer. So, if you see anything that " catches your eye" in regards to the matter, let us know and I will have a good look at it. I feel the "system" finds it very simple to assess the odds in the manner iv'e laid out, until we hit the "double figure " numbers where more than one horse has equal wins above 9. I would say that beyond that point it may look for "extra" information to calculate...

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                • #38
                  Interesting, as it might be going off of some old data, but in this young season, you can actually PUSH or Jockey decides on the rail in 6 furlong races, and EVEN PUSH on the 1 Mile and win frequently!!!! The 6-furlong Push for certain was a kiss of death; now it's probably a useful strategy LOL!

                  Never before I have I seen track conditions here at Digital Downs change so dramatically. Closers are Losers this season by and large, and not just late Strike the Gold type closers......EVEN stalkers are finding it difficult to catch up if a reasonable horse has a lead, at least covering the 2 tracks/surfaces I analyzed so far.

                  Of course, the handicapping cannot take this into consideration.....

                  Season 39 --> Now more than ever in MY PERSONAL OPINION (Not fact or gospel, as this is a user forum), ONE PREMISE:

                  Get to the lead, get the rail, or live to race another day.

                  Orb
                  Last edited by Orb Farms; 01-28-2018, 08:54 AM.
                  - Orb Farms

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                  • #39
                    I am finding a lot of interesting things within the handicapping...

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                    • #40
                      What is the point of the handicapping game? You buy in for 100 BC, bit of fun? Is that all? Or do you have the potential to turn that 100 BC into whatever it is you end up with at the end of the day?

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                      • #41
                        No point side some lighthearted entertainment, spawned originally by a contest of sorts.

                        I would not read more into it...... there are other Virtual sites who have much more serious betting systems, but number One - I would NEVER trust them, and #2 it requires MUCH more oversight/inspection/licensing......and I vote we keep things simple and skill based, and keep the handicapping for entertainment purposes!

                        Orb
                        - Orb Farms

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                        • #42
                          Maybe we can have another contest soon.
                          ** at 21:06, Brian joined the Lobby...
                          Brian Ta Das...

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Polaris Bloodstock View Post
                            and.....I would really like to understand how odds are determined when horses with same amount of wins. I know I am getting very close to the answer. So, if you see anything that " catches your eye" in regards to the matter, let us know and I will have a good look at it. I feel the "system" finds it very simple to assess the odds in the manner iv'e laid out, until we hit the "double figure " numbers where more than one horse has equal wins above 9. I would say that beyond that point it may look for "extra" information to calculate...

                            You are right on the money with odds being determined by number of wins. If multiple horses have the same number of wins it simply continues down the same path. The system next uses second place finishes and then third place finishes. If horse A has a record of 5-3-1 horse B is 5-2-2 and horse C is 5-2-0 horse A will be 2-1 B will be 3-1 and horse C will be 4-1. I haven’t investigated enough to know what happens if records are identical but I think that’s when both horses might be assigned the same odds. As to how a full field of first timers is handicapped I haven’t investigated thoroughly enough yet. But win/place/show results is the main principle behind the program.

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                            • #44
                              Thanks AMR...glad to see you picked it up. And, one other thing in relation to the odds changing AFTER the race. That's easy too. Let's say the 2/1 horse has 3 wins, and the 3/1 horse also has 3 wins, and the 3/1 horse wins race. Well...it now has 4 wins ( and because of this) it's now 2/1. The horse that was 2/1 (still on 3 wins after being beaten) is out to 3/1. The odds DO NOT change if the 2/1 horse had, for example, 6 wins.....while the 3/1 horse had only 4 wins. And if 3/1 won it would now be on 5 wins...still not enough to " leap frog" the horse that was 2/1 prior to race in total win tally. Hope it helps..

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