NEW Section - UPSET of the Day

[Orb Farms]

I am going to Write an "Upset of the Day", and clearly it is NOT Scientific, as the Handicapping odds are not scientific.....

Here is how it will operate:

1. I'll search the handicapping board for ANY horse that is GREATER than 5/1 on the board for a given day.
2. Horses who are EXACTLY 5/1 (or less) are NOT eligible for upset of the day
3. The Race I choose will typically be a PM race, as I will try to find a race with either A: high relevance or Class, or B: A GOOD claiming race with a Large field.
4. The "WEEK" will start on Monday at 00:05, and finish with the last race Sunday night.....BUT, the week will not TECHNICALLY start until MY post is declared..... I will make EVERY Effort to declare my upset as EARLY as possible...
5.. During the course of the week, if someone selects a horse in a minimum field of 6 horses, and you select the winner who is HIGHER odds than my Upset of the day, and you WIN......then you will earn a free breed from me.

6. **** I ask for you to self-govern this, with no EDITS, and I will NOT be monitoring like a hawk.....Quite simple.....If you follow the rules and win, please PM me, and I will communicate with you to get you your free breed!

OK, here goes!

MONDAY 04/16 - UPSET OF THE DAY:

04/16/2018

19:30

04/15/2018 20:50

22

Belmont DD

6f

Dirt fst

D-Division Colt 2 yo 0-2 Wins

I select Cryptographer, out of Gate #2.

The horse is 9/1, with a favorable Gate Draw, and a first-time starter out of a Barn who produces more winners per start than anyone in the history of the game. This horse was bred from a stallion (Bitcoin) who has offspring who are on a spectacular run, something in the neighborhood of 6 wins from the last 7 or 8 starts.....including multiple first-time starter wins. Newly-acquired Broodmare ONE RUN has a pedigree who includes WANKER, and this is one I always liked in the bloodline.

Cryptographer is running RIGHT AT 22.00 first splits, and sub- 57.79 workouts at 5 furlongs......6 Furlong workouts are a bit erratic, and the blinkers are wreaking havoc on the owner.....TOUGH field, middling jockey, but VERY good connections and bloodlines, so definitely worth a "long look for the long price".

Best of luck

[Foggydan Farms]

So yours must win to establish the bar? Or simplified, whoever picks the longest shot winner in the week wins?
In either case, i'll play. My pick for tonite is Forgotten Horshoes. Full brother to TC winner. He's at 8-1. Let me know how I do.

[Orb Farms]

Awesome! No rules on whether you pick your horse or someone else's horse.....I just happened to pick mine today

Orb

[Foggydan Farms]

No, I mean, to win, we have to pick a better winning longshot than you, right?
So, if mine wins and yours doesn't, that means i'm in the lead for the week?
on the other hand, if you win tonite, someone must pick a bigger longshot somewhere later in the week?

[Ms Stables]

Glad you like the breeding line for One Run. I had quite a few breeders I had not been using in my barn so I threw some in the auction last minute hoping someone would get some use out of them.

I will stick with the theme of picking your own horse and select the #3 horse in race #33 Ring My Bells she is at 10-1 odds. She is also my breed from the breeding game to Eckoandfoolish I wasn't going to run her before the race but her numbers were good and I couldn't pass up a 12 horse field in an A division race.

[Orb Farms]

Yes Dan, I am in the lead at 9/1, as Cryptographer DID come thru!!!! I didn't check MS or yours yet......... Looks like this week is going to be a tough task, as I pulled off a 9/1 on Monday!!!!

Orb

[Polaris Bloodstock]

9/1 will be tough to beat Orb.. havn't seen too many at higher odds. Well done on your opening effort!

[Orb Farms]

[EDIT] Dan, based on your reply below.......I would like you to read my response in this thread......I guess my objective is to get people to look at the entire card, and the handicapping, because a TON of entertainment is sitting in both......So, even if you find a 7/1 or 8/1, you will be leading your peers, and in the lead......I will always post as a "benchmark to try to beat".....and what I might do is offer a free breed to the best handicapper of long odds, and something MORE for someone who actually BEATS me when I go REALLY LONG like yesterday and actually win......But, in time, things will not always turn out with Orb hitting a 9/1 on his first stab! so.......for now, keep posting your long shots, 2 per week, per stable.

***I only speak of myself in the 3rd person this one thread, to avoid confusion.....That is not who I am LOL ***



If anyone comes near to 9/1, please let me know.....As I think I will change the rules to include ANYONE who has the longest odds to win for the week, and everyone gets either 1 or 2 selection/opportunities per week.

So, in other words, if MS Stables comes on this afternoon and selects an 8/1 for tonight......or if Norm selects a 7/1 Thursday morning (Remember, 6 horse field minimum), I will give the breed to the best long shot handicapper for the week who is NOT named Orb!

Yes Shane, I got lucky because Chrisman's horse was coming up the rail against Cryptographer (who was on steady), and just missed by .01 or .02!!!

Hope this little game garners some fun and laughs! What I would like to see is the odds stretch further apart...... i.e, I want to see 8/5, and 9/2, and even 17/1.......We SHOULD see this, when I handicap some of these fields.......but the program always bunches them together.......Cryptographer should have been 6/1 at the MOST, given workouts, connections, decent jock, and owner.....The only "X" Factor was heart.....and I still maintain heart is not determined in a 5 Furlong or 6 Furlong debut......Heart takes sprinters a race ( or three or four LOL) to pan out.

Best of luck,

Orb

[Foggydan Farms]

I guess my only recourse is to make a play with the #1 stables Broccoli today at 12-1.

[Orb Farms]

Glad you like the breeding line for One Run. I had quite a few breeders I had not been using in my barn so I threw some in the auction last minute hoping someone would get some use out of them.

I will stick with the theme of picking your own horse and select the #3 horse in race #33 Ring My Bells she is at 10-1 odds. She is also my breed from the breeding game to Eckoandfoolish I wasn't going to run her before the race but her numbers were good and I couldn't pass up a 12 horse field in an A division race.

Thanks MS>..... Not sure what it is, but the bloodline with WANKER in it seems to have GRIT. The horses with your bloodline seem to not want to quit at the wire.....Sometimes it is a $12k claimer, sometimes it is a "B" Division race, or higher......but the horses seem to have.....Dare I say it.....Heart when Wanker is in the mix! Just an unscientific, personal observation.

All the best!

Orb