It's near impossible to beat the pole sitter in those 5f sprint races. All Q's today were won by #1
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Mission Impossible
Collapse
X
-
..... Just call me .357 magnum this season..... Oh wait --> .3579 Magnum...... heh heh.
'Tis misfortune that you really just want to scratch the horses, as opposed to watching the same old thing from various scenarios..... but in the end it's just the way the ball bounces
I am certain many of us get the pulsating, intense thrill when we draw Gate 9 and 10 in a 5 furlong D-Division race for example; I mean...really? LOL
I stopped tracking gate draws, because "I already know".
Bottom line, The gate draw lottery is always and will always be more important than most factors in this engine, period. We just have to accept it.
Orb
- Orb Farms
-
The Cal Dirt is fair these where ran on Bel Dirt which has a huge bias for #1 - here are the cal dirt stats since Jan 1st this year - We also adjusted the 6f this season for outside spots . We will keep eye on the Fall create series to see how the outside has improved in 6f.
Spot Search
Search ResultsLength : 4f5f6f7f1m1 1/8m1 1/4m1 3/8m1 1/2m Track : Dirt SADirt CALTurf CALDirt BELTurf BEL Select Start Date : Select End Date :
3 Horse Races : 139 Spot 1 Wins : 43 Spot 2 Wins : 51 Spot 3 Wins : 45 4 Horse Races : 128 Spot 1 Wins : 33 Spot 2 Wins : 39 Spot 3 Wins : 24 Spot 4 Wins : 32 5 Horse Races : 133 Spot 1 Wins : 21 Spot 2 Wins : 35 Spot 3 Wins : 24 Spot 4 Wins : 22 Spot 5 Wins : 31 6 Horse Races : 116 Spot 1 Wins : 17 Spot 2 Wins : 25 Spot 3 Wins : 18 Spot 4 Wins : 20 Spot 5 Wins : 18 Spot 6 Wins : 18 7 Horse Races : 73 Spot 1 Wins : 12 Spot 2 Wins : 10 Spot 3 Wins : 16 Spot 4 Wins : 7 Spot 5 Wins : 12 Spot 6 Wins : 10 Spot 7 Wins : 6 8 Horse Races : 43 Spot 1 Wins : 5 Spot 2 Wins : 10 Spot 3 Wins : 7 Spot 4 Wins : 6 Spot 5 Wins : 7 Spot 6 Wins : 3 Spot 7 Wins : 4 Spot 8 Wins : 1 9 Horse Races : 27 Spot 1 Wins : 4 Spot 2 Wins : 7 Spot 3 Wins : 3 Spot 4 Wins : 7 Spot 5 Wins : 3 Spot 6 Wins : 1 Spot 8 Wins : 1 Spot 9 Wins : 1 10 Horse Races : 6 Spot 2 Wins : 1 Spot 3 Wins : 1 Spot 4 Wins : 2 Spot 5 Wins : 1 Spot 6 Wins : 1 11 Horse Races : 1 Spot 4 Wins : 1 12 Horse Races : 1 Spot 5 Wins : 1
Admin.
Comment
-
No just Cal Dirt Jan 1 -18 till today . It just shows it that way when I copy and paste .
for Example this is Bel dirt 6f same time period Spot Search
Search ResultsLength : 4f5f6f7f1m1 1/8m1 1/4m1 3/8m1 1/2m Track : Dirt SADirt CALTurf CALDirt BELTurf BEL Select Start Date : Select End Date :
2 Horse Races : 1 Spot 2 Wins : 1 3 Horse Races : 31 Spot 1 Wins : 10 Spot 2 Wins : 13 Spot 3 Wins : 8 4 Horse Races : 57 Spot 1 Wins : 13 Spot 2 Wins : 12 Spot 3 Wins : 14 Spot 4 Wins : 18 5 Horse Races : 121 Spot 1 Wins : 13 Spot 2 Wins : 26 Spot 3 Wins : 15 Spot 4 Wins : 42 Spot 5 Wins : 25 6 Horse Races : 83 Spot 1 Wins : 10 Spot 2 Wins : 16 Spot 3 Wins : 14 Spot 4 Wins : 23 Spot 5 Wins : 8 Spot 6 Wins : 12 7 Horse Races : 49 Spot 1 Wins : 4 Spot 2 Wins : 10 Spot 3 Wins : 7 Spot 4 Wins : 11 Spot 5 Wins : 12 Spot 6 Wins : 2 Spot 7 Wins : 3 8 Horse Races : 35 Spot 1 Wins : 2 Spot 2 Wins : 6 Spot 3 Wins : 8 Spot 4 Wins : 7 Spot 5 Wins : 6 Spot 6 Wins : 3 Spot 7 Wins : 2 Spot 8 Wins : 1 9 Horse Races : 31 Spot 1 Wins : 4 Spot 2 Wins : 6 Spot 3 Wins : 4 Spot 4 Wins : 6 Spot 5 Wins : 5 Spot 6 Wins : 3 Spot 7 Wins : 2 Spot 8 Wins : 1 10 Horse Races : 15 Spot 1 Wins : 2 Spot 2 Wins : 3 Spot 3 Wins : 2 Spot 4 Wins : 1 Spot 5 Wins : 3 Spot 7 Wins : 1 Spot 8 Wins : 3 11 Horse Races : 10 Spot 1 Wins : 2 Spot 3 Wins : 2 Spot 4 Wins : 4 Spot 5 Wins : 1 Spot 6 Wins : 1 12 Horse Races : 22 Spot 2 Wins : 5 Spot 3 Wins : 4 Spot 4 Wins : 2 Spot 5 Wins : 2 Spot 6 Wins : 4 Spot 7 Wins : 1 Spot 9 Wins : 1 Spot 10 Wins : 2 Spot 11 Wins : 1
Admin.
Comment
-
What about stats for BEL 5f? I just watched race#22 with 10 starters. Numbers 7,8,9,10 were giving the leaders 5-7lengths when they straightened for the run home. They had no chance. The problem as I see it with BEL 5f, there is only a short run (1/2f) to the start of the turn. The program forces the outside horses back no matter what instruction they have because it will only allow 3 wide up front on the turn."There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"
Comment
-
Gate bias cannot be "macroed out" by doing a spot check.... as it does not zero in on sprints, Stakes race sprints, etc...
Earnings for Gate 1, as well as wins, across multiple seasons and tireless data entry....... is literally off the charts for "races that matter".
....If you want to include $1k claiming races, 12 furlong races, etc..... However, I believe Norm and I were referring to sprints, and 4-5-6 furlong races....
...Here is the point really, and I think many would agree....
I would MUCH rather have Gate 1 than Sutherland (or any good sprint jockey), or even better workouts and/or breeding parents in most sprints.
That is strange, but true for me......
Orb
- Orb Farms
Comment
-
in a 3 horse race the 2 has a 1 out of 3 chance to win . (33%)
in a 4 horse race the 2 has a 1 in 4 chance (25%)
ect
ect
in a 7 horse race the 7 horse has a 1 in 7 chance (14.2%)
in a 8 horse race the 7 horse has a 1 in 8 chance ( 12.5%)
ect
your not comparing apples to apples
with all that being said there was a small adjustment made the 1st day of last 2 season . including outside post in 7 plus horse races
I only showed this calendar year to show enough races to get a accurate viewAdmin.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Orb Farms View Post..... Just call me .357 magnum this season..... Oh wait --> .3579 Magnum...... heh heh.
'Tis misfortune that you really just want to scratch the horses, as opposed to watching the same old thing from various scenarios..... but in the end it's just the way the ball bounces
I am certain many of us get the pulsating, intense thrill when we draw Gate 9 and 10 in a 5 furlong D-Division race for example; I mean...really? LOL
I stopped tracking gate draws, because "I already know".
Bottom line, The gate draw lottery is always and will always be more important than most factors in this engine, period. We just have to accept it.
Orb
SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?
WAR! WAR! WAR!
Comment
Comment