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Mission Impossible

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  • Mission Impossible

    It's near impossible to beat the pole sitter in those 5f sprint races. All Q's today were won by #1
    "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

  • #2
    ..... Just call me .357 magnum this season..... Oh wait --> .3579 Magnum...... heh heh.

    'Tis misfortune that you really just want to scratch the horses, as opposed to watching the same old thing from various scenarios..... but in the end it's just the way the ball bounces

    I am certain many of us get the pulsating, intense thrill when we draw Gate 9 and 10 in a 5 furlong D-Division race for example; I mean...really? LOL

    I stopped tracking gate draws, because "I already know".

    Bottom line, The gate draw lottery is always and will always be more important than most factors in this engine, period. We just have to accept it.


    Orb


    - Orb Farms

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    • #3
      I realize I have to accept it but that doesn't mean I have to like it lol
      "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

      Comment


      • #4
        I think the 35 stables that have left the game since season 32 didnt like it either.

        Comment


        • #5
          The Cal Dirt is fair these where ran on Bel Dirt which has a huge bias for #1 - here are the cal dirt stats since Jan 1st this year - We also adjusted the 6f this season for outside spots . We will keep eye on the Fall create series to see how the outside has improved in 6f.
          Spot Search

          Length : 4f5f6f7f1m1 1/8m1 1/4m1 3/8m1 1/2m Track : Dirt SADirt CALTurf CALDirt BELTurf BEL Select Start Date : Select End Date :
          Search Results

          3 Horse Races : 139
          Spot 1 Wins : 43
          Spot 2 Wins : 51
          Spot 3 Wins : 45
          4 Horse Races : 128
          Spot 1 Wins : 33
          Spot 2 Wins : 39
          Spot 3 Wins : 24
          Spot 4 Wins : 32
          5 Horse Races : 133
          Spot 1 Wins : 21
          Spot 2 Wins : 35
          Spot 3 Wins : 24
          Spot 4 Wins : 22
          Spot 5 Wins : 31
          6 Horse Races : 116
          Spot 1 Wins : 17
          Spot 2 Wins : 25
          Spot 3 Wins : 18
          Spot 4 Wins : 20
          Spot 5 Wins : 18
          Spot 6 Wins : 18
          7 Horse Races : 73
          Spot 1 Wins : 12
          Spot 2 Wins : 10
          Spot 3 Wins : 16
          Spot 4 Wins : 7
          Spot 5 Wins : 12
          Spot 6 Wins : 10
          Spot 7 Wins : 6
          8 Horse Races : 43
          Spot 1 Wins : 5
          Spot 2 Wins : 10
          Spot 3 Wins : 7
          Spot 4 Wins : 6
          Spot 5 Wins : 7
          Spot 6 Wins : 3
          Spot 7 Wins : 4
          Spot 8 Wins : 1
          9 Horse Races : 27
          Spot 1 Wins : 4
          Spot 2 Wins : 7
          Spot 3 Wins : 3
          Spot 4 Wins : 7
          Spot 5 Wins : 3
          Spot 6 Wins : 1
          Spot 8 Wins : 1
          Spot 9 Wins : 1
          10 Horse Races : 6
          Spot 2 Wins : 1
          Spot 3 Wins : 1
          Spot 4 Wins : 2
          Spot 5 Wins : 1
          Spot 6 Wins : 1
          11 Horse Races : 1
          Spot 4 Wins : 1
          12 Horse Races : 1
          Spot 5 Wins : 1


          Admin.

          Comment


          • #6
            Are these stats for all distances/tracks?
            "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

            Comment


            • #7
              No just Cal Dirt Jan 1 -18 till today . It just shows it that way when I copy and paste .

              for Example this is Bel dirt 6f same time period Spot Search

              Length : 4f5f6f7f1m1 1/8m1 1/4m1 3/8m1 1/2m Track : Dirt SADirt CALTurf CALDirt BELTurf BEL Select Start Date : Select End Date :
              Search Results

              2 Horse Races : 1
              Spot 2 Wins : 1
              3 Horse Races : 31
              Spot 1 Wins : 10
              Spot 2 Wins : 13
              Spot 3 Wins : 8
              4 Horse Races : 57
              Spot 1 Wins : 13
              Spot 2 Wins : 12
              Spot 3 Wins : 14
              Spot 4 Wins : 18
              5 Horse Races : 121
              Spot 1 Wins : 13
              Spot 2 Wins : 26
              Spot 3 Wins : 15
              Spot 4 Wins : 42
              Spot 5 Wins : 25
              6 Horse Races : 83
              Spot 1 Wins : 10
              Spot 2 Wins : 16
              Spot 3 Wins : 14
              Spot 4 Wins : 23
              Spot 5 Wins : 8
              Spot 6 Wins : 12
              7 Horse Races : 49
              Spot 1 Wins : 4
              Spot 2 Wins : 10
              Spot 3 Wins : 7
              Spot 4 Wins : 11
              Spot 5 Wins : 12
              Spot 6 Wins : 2
              Spot 7 Wins : 3
              8 Horse Races : 35
              Spot 1 Wins : 2
              Spot 2 Wins : 6
              Spot 3 Wins : 8
              Spot 4 Wins : 7
              Spot 5 Wins : 6
              Spot 6 Wins : 3
              Spot 7 Wins : 2
              Spot 8 Wins : 1
              9 Horse Races : 31
              Spot 1 Wins : 4
              Spot 2 Wins : 6
              Spot 3 Wins : 4
              Spot 4 Wins : 6
              Spot 5 Wins : 5
              Spot 6 Wins : 3
              Spot 7 Wins : 2
              Spot 8 Wins : 1
              10 Horse Races : 15
              Spot 1 Wins : 2
              Spot 2 Wins : 3
              Spot 3 Wins : 2
              Spot 4 Wins : 1
              Spot 5 Wins : 3
              Spot 7 Wins : 1
              Spot 8 Wins : 3
              11 Horse Races : 10
              Spot 1 Wins : 2
              Spot 3 Wins : 2
              Spot 4 Wins : 4
              Spot 5 Wins : 1
              Spot 6 Wins : 1
              12 Horse Races : 22
              Spot 2 Wins : 5
              Spot 3 Wins : 4
              Spot 4 Wins : 2
              Spot 5 Wins : 2
              Spot 6 Wins : 4
              Spot 7 Wins : 1
              Spot 9 Wins : 1
              Spot 10 Wins : 2
              Spot 11 Wins : 1

              Admin.

              Comment


              • #8
                What about stats for BEL 5f? I just watched race#22 with 10 starters. Numbers 7,8,9,10 were giving the leaders 5-7lengths when they straightened for the run home. They had no chance. The problem as I see it with BEL 5f, there is only a short run (1/2f) to the start of the turn. The program forces the outside horses back no matter what instruction they have because it will only allow 3 wide up front on the turn.
                "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

                Comment


                • #9
                  I don't understand why the first and last Sprint Q was held at Santa Anita while the others were at BEL?
                  "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Gate bias cannot be "macroed out" by doing a spot check.... as it does not zero in on sprints, Stakes race sprints, etc...

                    Earnings for Gate 1, as well as wins, across multiple seasons and tireless data entry....... is literally off the charts for "races that matter".

                    ....If you want to include $1k claiming races, 12 furlong races, etc..... However, I believe Norm and I were referring to sprints, and 4-5-6 furlong races....


                    ...Here is the point really, and I think many would agree....

                    I would MUCH rather have Gate 1 than Sutherland (or any good sprint jockey), or even better workouts and/or breeding parents in most sprints.

                    That is strange, but true for me......

                    Orb

                    - Orb Farms

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Did someone actually say calder was fair? I looked at 2 random posts (2 & 7).

                      2 - 178/677 27%
                      7 - 10/151 6%

                      Doing is the best way of saying

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        in a 3 horse race the 2 has a 1 out of 3 chance to win . (33%)
                        in a 4 horse race the 2 has a 1 in 4 chance (25%)

                        ect
                        ect

                        in a 7 horse race the 7 horse has a 1 in 7 chance (14.2%)
                        in a 8 horse race the 7 horse has a 1 in 8 chance ( 12.5%)

                        ect


                        your not comparing apples to apples

                        with all that being said there was a small adjustment made the 1st day of last 2 season . including outside post in 7 plus horse races

                        I only showed this calendar year to show enough races to get a accurate view
                        Admin.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Orb Farms View Post
                          ..... Just call me .357 magnum this season..... Oh wait --> .3579 Magnum...... heh heh.

                          'Tis misfortune that you really just want to scratch the horses, as opposed to watching the same old thing from various scenarios..... but in the end it's just the way the ball bounces

                          I am certain many of us get the pulsating, intense thrill when we draw Gate 9 and 10 in a 5 furlong D-Division race for example; I mean...really? LOL

                          I stopped tracking gate draws, because "I already know".

                          Bottom line, The gate draw lottery is always and will always be more important than most factors in this engine, period. We just have to accept it.


                          Orb

                          that is why we have to shorten the fields to 7 horses and have more split races at 5F i rather have a change to win at gate 6/7 or draw 8/9/10 and get NOTHING
                          SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?


                          WAR! WAR! WAR!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I will look at this for next season I would like to see how adjustments for this season work out . thanks and good luck
                            Admin.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Its still the best site on the planet....despite our occasional forum contributions..

                              Let us not forget that......

                              Orb
                              - Orb Farms

                              Comment

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