wins

[Goof Troop]

I think the game is getting to expensive for me cant hit the board in races just putting what I can afford and it doesn't seem to be enough. don't know if I should leave or stay.

[Second To None]

Sometimes is best just to walk away for a while then come back after a rest and start again.

[And More Racing Stable]

I would hate to see you leave and the only thing I can offer is that this game like business and many aspects of life itself requires constant adjusting. I know I can be stubborn and not make adjustments as quickly as I should which I believe is why even though my earnings were OK my win % sucked mostly in single digits the last 2 or 3 seasons. This season I decided to not be so stubborn with my horses and start running many of them into the claiming ranks and keep pushing them down the ladder until they compete or they hit the highway. Along with some other adjustments I've made the result is my win % is now mid teens. Still not where I want it but better...more adjustments are coming.

Good horses are good horses but the claiming ranks are getting tougher. With Chrisman having cranked up his game and the emergence of Pancho & Toc we now have 5 stables (6 if Greeko comes back full force after his break) instead of 2 or 3 who can legitimately contend for the training title year in and year out. That doesn't even include a couple other stables who I think could be lurking in the shadows with the potential to build a title contending stable if they so choose.

The result is that the claiming ranks get more competitive because they are running stronger horses there in order to get wins. Adjustments to ones game become necessary either in lowering expectations as to what ability is needed to compete in each class level or maybe in becoming a claiming stable and take advantage of their running good horses for a price. Second To None can attest to how that can be beneficial.

Anyway, just my two cents worth of thoughts before you decide to leave the game because I really hope you don't. There are ways for any stable here to compete at some level. One just needs to analyze where they want to compete, where they can compete and how to go about it.

[Tockyocky Racing]

Part 1 - Winning

This is a good topic and AMRS made some good points. Goof your not a rookie and you have seen your fair share of racing so I will just speak and maybe it helps. Just sometimes we kinda run our stables with blinders on.

I think a healthy goal for a win% is around 15% and u are right around that number. I don't see a problem really with your win rate and what I would be more concerned with is your ITM%. Your ITM% is around 48% which is about 8% off the ideal mark and you will see that the top five stables all fall above 50% and below 60%. Pancho runs sometimes 4 horses in a low claimer race so his numbers are a bit skewed so I left his out. This is purely a placement issue!!

Proper placement is key to a lot of what goes on here outside of stakes grade and maiden runners. Yes...when the top gets more competitive the rest of the racing feels the impact as it should. I want 50 more stables racing...what impact on the card does that make and the adjustment of placement needed. I run for big races...if my horse cant cut it then i take another route. Maidens, divisions, claimers, starter allowance then the claimer drop. I try to get as many wins for the horse on its way down. So I disagree that someone like myself drops good horses in claimers just to get wins...thats cheap. I try to maximize each horse before I click retire horse but the days of me holding onto hopes for a non producing workout warrior are over!

The best and worse part of the game is finding out if your horse can run or not. If it can...great then where? If it cant...answer this question. Can it run anywhere at all at least once and be ITM? If it can't then retire it and move on. I find that answer to be responsible for 2%-5% when looking at ITM% If your horse can run then where can it run in the current environment? This is a one shot deal...you will learn after this if the horse is competitive. If it competes than its likely it will compete with each level of placement drop until its retired. The best horses in this game are the ones that continue to run at the same level for a period of time. Be it stakes or claimers they can run at that level for a while finding a sweet spot. I break my horses into 5 groups.

Horses that are money
Horses that will have a career
Horses that will have a dropping career
Horses that are 3 and done
Horses that should never see a track ( i use these for that multi train tool)

Unfortunately for some and fortunately for others this is where the game just begins. Having a horse of any type is the beginning and what makes the cream rise to the top are all the little detailed aspects of the game like meters, track, gate, distance, surface, jockey and instruction. Oh...and the other trainers in the race gate jockey instruction. This goes for any grade of racing. At times it feels like I'm playing poker once the race is posted. These aspects of the game have a far greater overall impact on being ITM than the horse itsefl.

With a big sample size...numbers don't lie!

[Tockyocky Racing]

Part 2 - Winning

Let's just focus on the horse aspect.

I see people complain all the time that their horses don't run their work out times. That if it runs 1:08:78 at 6F in a workout that its a stakes horse...no...sorry its just a horse that ran a fast work.As in real life there are many horses that work fast and can't compete come race day. Then we keep entering the horse in the same grade of race because we want it not to be true so bad. Before you know it the horse has a 0% ITM rate in 7 races and minus 22K in net revenue. How frustrating! Other horses are Champions and they don't have the best workouts...example... 2 Minute Drive! This horse does not have the best work times at any distance and frankly it's not even close however the horse is the real deal come race day and will make an impact.

Like real horse racing all horses have a career span. Many if not most race horses will never see 10 races and in this virtual game it's not much different. Some horses will run stakes grade until retired. Some run hot for 3 races and it just can't keep that same ability and fall off and level out somewhere. Some horses run hot once and are 1 hit wonders. Also...remember that when you geld a horse that the it affects each horse differently. You could geld and its gonna find a spot and race at that spot forever basically. Some you will geld and make worse. Some you will geld and it will have a burst of energy for a race like a lasix effect and then flame out quickly.

I see complaints about yearlings not running well as it turns 2YO. Well what made you think the horse was gonna run well..the works at 1YO? The fact that it was worked as a 1YO has no bearing on the horses ability at 2YO. The work time itself will carry over but it's pure ability to compete on race day has nothing to do with turning 2YO. In fact a 1YO is basically a 2YO with no age change. The % chance that a horse born and will race it's works is the same. Just know going into the breeding shed that a good % of the horses born wont live up to the hype and other horse will.

Age change for 2YO to 3YO and 3YO to 4YO are real. I actually think its exciting come age change and watching the horses race for the first time after the change. Which went from stakes to claimers and which went from opens to stakes and which stakes are now true stakes contenders.

To be clear...you are looking for a horse that survived 2yo and is running at the same level or better as 3yo...these are the best horses! Before you drop horses please make sure you have review the race form and look for things as possible reasons for under performing. What have the gates been like? What were the jockeys? What surface and distance? Which horses did it lose to....first time runners or first time gelds?

Create races are under utilized however the entry fees for creates need to be fixed. Not sure how combined create races and other races have higher entry fees than say a Belmont Tuesday Open. Don't let maiden claimer races puff your chest out. Most likely if your horse wins a 20K maiden claimer it will get curb stomped in an open 20K claimer. Again back to placement! ITM%

100% meters are not best for every horse...its up to you know your meters. Impacts ITM%

There is very very little randomness in this game and there is nothing random about your own skill set. Money will always be a factor but spenders can't impact your knowledge and strategy. If you have a horse and you know what you have and you know what you want the horse to do than you can compete against money.

[And More Racing Stable]

Some great points Toc. Especially about the fact that just because a horse works lights out at 6f does not mean it's a champ or even that it should run at 6f. As Toc said many horses in real life are the same. Having been involved with real racing and breeding in my life I can tell you that for a digitally programmed game DD does a pretty good job of mirroring real racing and breeding.

I want to clarify one thing I said earlier...when I said "they are running stronger horses there (in claimers) in order to get wins" I didn't mean they drop good horses into cheap races just to get wins. What I meant was when a large stable has 4,5,6 pretty good horses who are all virtually the same in the distance they run etc. needing to compete against each other and there are a couple who just keep chasing the others then there's a chance you might find those couple in the higher claiming ranks so that their ROI can be maximized.

Here are a couple examples from my stable that go to some of mine and Toc's points...

6f works only tell you so much...I had a filly whose first work was 1:09.00 completely naked. With meds and adds she worked down in the 1:08.80 range. She was a router with no early speed at all. She won a Q race and made $150K but she trailed (way out of the picture trailed) the field early in every race at a route and I always had to keep my fingers crossed that today would be the day she fired. Sometimes she did and sometimes not enough. Breeding note...she produced 4 stakes winners for me and they all showed speed so the speed was there to pass on she just didn't have it herself.

Don't underestimate the "heart" factor (or whatever you want to call it)...Toc mentioned 2 Minute Drive and as he said her works are good but not outstanding to make you think she's necessarily Champion caliber but yet she comes to compete every time she races. As much as how well she runs the biggest reason I bought her was because in researching her pedigree I believe I can see some heart being passed down. Some pedigrees have that and some don't regardless of the ability of an individual horse. We never know a horses heart until they step on the track for a race and we never know if they will pass it down until we breed them but I do believe there are indicators though none of them are foolproof. The saying in real breeding is breed the best you can afford to the best you can afford and hope for the best. The same thing applies in DD. The key is in understanding what "the best" might mean.

3 and done or not...I'll use two opposite examples here. First, River Spike is a 2yo who won 2 of his first 3 races including a Q race and $57K. In 9 races since then he hasn't earned a penny including a 7th place finish at $10K claiming. Believe it or not this does happen in real racing too. He's still 4th on the sprint championship list so he may just sit in my barn until then and if he remains qualified I'll hope for a miracle. Second, Broom Racer is a 5yo who has won 10 of 38 races and is approaching $500K in earnings. She's a create who was 3rd as a 2yo, 2nd as a 3yo and threw in a clunker from a bad outside post as a 4yo in create sprint finals. She is currently 2nd on the champ standings this season as a 5yo. Age changes are not always bad. Personal note...I believe that horses who show this kind of consistency and longevity have quality attributes to pass down to make them quality breeders. I'm excited about eventually breeding her but she keeps winning so I haven't been able to bring myself to retire her yet. Will I breed her or race her as a 6yo? I honestly don't know yet.

In conclusion I believe there are indicators to guide us but they aren't just surface indicators like the horse worked on 1:08.60 so he should be a champ or the horse was a champ in just 10 races so we retire him to be a champ breeder instead of seeing if they maintain that quality. Just a few of my thoughts.

[Chrisman]

Great read guys...
Troop, hope you decide to stay. As mentioned your numbers are not bad, and your veteran status should guide you some.
if you decide to take a break, make it short. I've noticed once many stables leave for a long enough time, they return appears rusty and they don't find a good momentum easily. Old habits vs new changes etc.

[Goof Troop]

thanks guys