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  • Handicapping Observations

    This post should come under the Help For New Members thread but as I don't have access to that category, I will add it to the Community thread.


    On the odd occasion I have been looking at the Handicapping option i.e. "Handicapping" found under the Main Stable tab on the Main Stable page. The DD Handicapper odds are quite thin allocating 2/1 to the best selection then 3/1 for the 2nd pick, 4/1 for the 3rd pick and so on. I believe it was added as a side game to provide a fun contest between interested players. However, from my observations there is more valuable information that can be extracted from the Handicapper odds than just a side contest.

    ​What information is the Handicapper using for the calculation for the race odds?

    It isn't prizemoney because you will see that horses that have earned more money previously aren't listed as the 2/1 fav. in every race.
    ​It isn't strike rate because in maiden races where all horses haven't had a previous run, H/cap still allocates different odds not the same odds for all horses.
    ​It isn't random because there are more 2/1 horses winning the day's racecard than any other of the other odds.
    ​It isn't the jockey ability or the race instructions because from observations of my own horses compared to the odds, different results oc.

    ​So what information is H'cap drawing on to give near accurate odds? So in my opinion, it can only be one thing....

    The horse's hidden numbers.

    ​The accuracy of Hcap predictions are stronger in same age/gender races and weaker in multiple age/gender races. This would hold true because the Hcap wouldn't allow for age ability changes just raw number data. Therefore it wouldn't allow for weight variations between fillies and colts.

    ​So what benefits can we grab from the Hcap predictions?

    ​If your horse is listed at 2/1: It may indicate that it is worth persevering with this horse in this or a higher grade despite the result. Refrain from gelding it. Make some adjustments next start if it gets beaten this day.

    ​If another horse is listed at 2/1: It could indicate a good claiming proposition. If a horse wins at e.g. 5/1 in a mixed age/gender race, see what happens when it is against its own age/gender.

    ​You may see other benefits from Hcap observations. 2/1 fav. getting beaten could be from wrong distance/wrong instruction, bad draw etc. Also, you must consider that the 2/1 prediction is against the other horses in this particular race and the horse could start at e.g. 5/1 next start against better opposition.

    ​Anyway, it is something to amuse yourselves with and I welcome additional observations or criticism regarding this.

    Norm
    "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

  • #2
    Interesting....
    Admin.

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    • #3
      Smart and tantalizing. Camaro better be 2:1 tomorrow.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ryan Express View Post
        Smart and tantalizing. Camaro better be 2:1 tomorrow.
        35 year old

        Souvenir $2 dollar bet ... collectable... one for the ages.. its 5-1 ... Who ever wins a claim on Ryan's horse wins a free breed to Power Rangers

        Ryan will also get a free breed
        Last edited by Greeko Holdem; 01-18-2018, 08:42 PM.

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        • #5
          excellent observations Norm ..useful for everyone not just new members !
          SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?


          WAR! WAR! WAR!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Ryan Express View Post
            Smart and tantalizing. Camaro better be 2:1 tomorrow.
            A better bet would be it getting out of the starting gate
            "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

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            • #7
              Maybe he had a good age change. ?
              Admin.

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              • #8
                The interesting thing is that your 'young' unraced 5yo in the same race is quoted at the same odds as Camaro. Did you match them in a private trial that only you and Hcap were privy to?
                "There's a fine line between winning and losing... it's called The Finish Line"

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Lone Star Stables View Post
                  Maybe he had a good age change. ?
                  He has the same chance of having a good age change as I do.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Trunoble Lodge View Post
                    The interesting thing is that your 'young' unraced 5yo in the same race is quoted at the same odds as Camaro. Did you match them in a private trial that only you and Hcap were privy to?
                    Yeah odds are that 5yo will be “unraced” even after his first race.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Greeko Holdem View Post

                      35 year old

                      Souvenir $2 dollar bet ... collectable... one for the ages.. its 5-1 ... Who ever wins a claim on Ryan's horse wins a free breed to Power Rangers

                      Ryan will also get a free breed
                      Oh no. He’s the heart and soul of my stable. Please no claims 😂

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                      • #12
                        Very interesting Norm. There may be some validity to your suspicions as my first time starter Crown The Wife is the 2-1 choice tomorrow despite 4 of the 8 horses having run 2nd before. I will be reviewing this race and the odds of others more closely moving forward.



                        May the horse be with you!
                        Jason
                        ATM Stables

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                        • #13
                          Norm, you have way too much time on your hands, lol.
                          STAR OF THE DESERT STABLE
                          LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, USA
                          HANDICAPPING DUD

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