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Orb's Oracle - Season 38 - Volume I
Morning, morning, morning everyone!
Today's Oracle issue pertains to breeding, bloodlines, and stable management from a "Long-Term" perspective. as an eight-season veteran now, which slots me as "more experienced" than many, but still miles away from the true Hall of Fame active players like Norm, Eddie, Steve, and Dragon, etc.... I believe I now have enough of a sample to provide some insight on long-term stable management.
The single-most important component to successfully manage an active, career-oriented stable lies in the season-to-season foresight with regard to breeding and bloodline carryover. This issue of Orb's Oracle will present ideas for inspecting, analyzing, training, experimenting, and placing your colts, geldings, and fillies, so that you can allow your successes and opportunities bleed into future seasons.
COLTS, FILLIES, AND GELDINGS
FILLIES:
Colts and Fillies are GOLD, if they have tried and true bloodlines, REGARDLESS of performance in most cases. Fillies are a given; they cannot be Gelded, but they are EXTREMELY valuable, insofar as they offer up just one THIRD of a Stallion breeder. So, Fillies-management requires patience, careful race placement, and getting the most out of your girl while she is active on the track. I find that fillies often can run completely different races with just MINOR tweaks to distance, equipment, meds, jockey instructions, jockey selection, and surface. Experiment with your Fillies during training, and let it play out in PROTECTED races on the track. With your "average bloodline" Fillies, be READY and WILLING to drop [and climb] the claiming ladder, based on performances. In the future breeding phase, fillies with LOTS of early/gate speed, or LOTS of stamina/distance can prove SUPER valuable as a breeding partner.
COLTS:
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of Digital Downs is discipline....and it follows that CHOICES render us vulnerable to potentially good and bad decisions. For Colts, the single EXTRA decision - To Geld or NOT to geld, can win you a battle, but lose you a war. My belief is that a heavy dose of 6F workouts will not provide you enough information to simply Geld a horse before he even runs in a live race! I've banged this drum for 2-3 seasons now, but do NOT fall into the "I need 1:08.90 or better" mindset, or else you will geld. One of my current examples - not a Star by any stretch of the imagination - is running well. Let's look closely at a 2 year-old CREATE names Orbsolutely. In the current season, Orbsolutely ran in 9 races so far. His record shows that he has 3 wins, 1 Place, and 3 Shows, earning $47k in 9 races, or $5.5K per race. This horse is a no-brainer, in that he shows very good workouts. HOWEVER, in the same light, looking at my 3 year old Colt INSIGHT (Out of Lego and Generation Ex) his numbers were QUITE modest as a 2 year old, and proportionately modest to the age change against the same 120 pound weight. Under NO circumstances will I again dangle this horse for claim, nor will I geld him, because I believe that the Generation Ex/Lego bloodline will carry well into the breeding phase of Insight's career. The first horse Orbsolutely seems like a "no-brainer", and a good 3 year old age change turns this horse into a Qualifier candidate. However, Insight has earned a little over $14k in 6 races - He will probably get to 12-14 races, retire, and breed well. The bottom line - KEEP your bloodlines to carry over into new seasons, and perhaps cut your losses and geld on the less-bloodline-rich horses as needed.
GELDINGS:
Perhaps one of the most effective tools I use to maintain some semblance of success in this game is the Gelded horse. THESE are the horses (with the occasional exception of Geldings who carry their improved form forward for many races) where I get VERY aggressive, to earn money, to utilize the claiming ladder in order to gain information about my gelding's ability, and I lose several geldings in claiming races, but for me, it's part of my gamesmanship. It's not for everyone, but there is some common thread here. Geldings should ALWAYS be your pawns on the Digital Downs chessboard. They can be EXTREMELY valuable and successful horses, garnering much attention at the claiming box. Nominate your geldings at the HIGHEST level to where you TRULY believe the can win a race. Sometimes, your "gut" will tell you that a Gelding is "used up early" in their career, and you will end up VERY wrong (I have been wrong more than anyone with regard to this, to the financial benefit of many others), so I should personally be MUCH more disciplined in tapping higher claiming levels for some of my geldings.
Finally, I will close in stating that I am NOT a fan of Retiring Stallions at age 3. I like to at the very least SEE the 3-4 Age Change BEFORE I retire a horse, and with RARE exception, I follow this rule regularly now, as a matter of stable policy. Further, I also carry the opinion that a breeder with good bloodlines (for the most part, as there will be SOME breeders who simply suck, period....) will either have a veery good FIRST crop, or a very good SECOND-SEASON crop of offspring.....so I would not give up on your breeders without testing them into their second-season offspring crop. New Zealand was very near AWFUL last season, but seems to have enjoyed MUCH more success this season as a Stallion. His Season 38 success will not show up on any stat sheet, but I know this personally through my own breeding.
Enjoy your stable, enjoy the game.....Feel free to comment, challenge, rebuke, confirm, or add to this post, as I really enjoy watching younger and newer stables evolve into a Multi-season "Franchise", with multiple options to produce one's very own bloodlines from their home-grown stables!
My very best, Good Luck and happy racing,
Orb
Morning, morning, morning everyone!
Today's Oracle issue pertains to breeding, bloodlines, and stable management from a "Long-Term" perspective. as an eight-season veteran now, which slots me as "more experienced" than many, but still miles away from the true Hall of Fame active players like Norm, Eddie, Steve, and Dragon, etc.... I believe I now have enough of a sample to provide some insight on long-term stable management.
The single-most important component to successfully manage an active, career-oriented stable lies in the season-to-season foresight with regard to breeding and bloodline carryover. This issue of Orb's Oracle will present ideas for inspecting, analyzing, training, experimenting, and placing your colts, geldings, and fillies, so that you can allow your successes and opportunities bleed into future seasons.
COLTS, FILLIES, AND GELDINGS
FILLIES:
Colts and Fillies are GOLD, if they have tried and true bloodlines, REGARDLESS of performance in most cases. Fillies are a given; they cannot be Gelded, but they are EXTREMELY valuable, insofar as they offer up just one THIRD of a Stallion breeder. So, Fillies-management requires patience, careful race placement, and getting the most out of your girl while she is active on the track. I find that fillies often can run completely different races with just MINOR tweaks to distance, equipment, meds, jockey instructions, jockey selection, and surface. Experiment with your Fillies during training, and let it play out in PROTECTED races on the track. With your "average bloodline" Fillies, be READY and WILLING to drop [and climb] the claiming ladder, based on performances. In the future breeding phase, fillies with LOTS of early/gate speed, or LOTS of stamina/distance can prove SUPER valuable as a breeding partner.
COLTS:
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of Digital Downs is discipline....and it follows that CHOICES render us vulnerable to potentially good and bad decisions. For Colts, the single EXTRA decision - To Geld or NOT to geld, can win you a battle, but lose you a war. My belief is that a heavy dose of 6F workouts will not provide you enough information to simply Geld a horse before he even runs in a live race! I've banged this drum for 2-3 seasons now, but do NOT fall into the "I need 1:08.90 or better" mindset, or else you will geld. One of my current examples - not a Star by any stretch of the imagination - is running well. Let's look closely at a 2 year-old CREATE names Orbsolutely. In the current season, Orbsolutely ran in 9 races so far. His record shows that he has 3 wins, 1 Place, and 3 Shows, earning $47k in 9 races, or $5.5K per race. This horse is a no-brainer, in that he shows very good workouts. HOWEVER, in the same light, looking at my 3 year old Colt INSIGHT (Out of Lego and Generation Ex) his numbers were QUITE modest as a 2 year old, and proportionately modest to the age change against the same 120 pound weight. Under NO circumstances will I again dangle this horse for claim, nor will I geld him, because I believe that the Generation Ex/Lego bloodline will carry well into the breeding phase of Insight's career. The first horse Orbsolutely seems like a "no-brainer", and a good 3 year old age change turns this horse into a Qualifier candidate. However, Insight has earned a little over $14k in 6 races - He will probably get to 12-14 races, retire, and breed well. The bottom line - KEEP your bloodlines to carry over into new seasons, and perhaps cut your losses and geld on the less-bloodline-rich horses as needed.
GELDINGS:
Perhaps one of the most effective tools I use to maintain some semblance of success in this game is the Gelded horse. THESE are the horses (with the occasional exception of Geldings who carry their improved form forward for many races) where I get VERY aggressive, to earn money, to utilize the claiming ladder in order to gain information about my gelding's ability, and I lose several geldings in claiming races, but for me, it's part of my gamesmanship. It's not for everyone, but there is some common thread here. Geldings should ALWAYS be your pawns on the Digital Downs chessboard. They can be EXTREMELY valuable and successful horses, garnering much attention at the claiming box. Nominate your geldings at the HIGHEST level to where you TRULY believe the can win a race. Sometimes, your "gut" will tell you that a Gelding is "used up early" in their career, and you will end up VERY wrong (I have been wrong more than anyone with regard to this, to the financial benefit of many others), so I should personally be MUCH more disciplined in tapping higher claiming levels for some of my geldings.
Finally, I will close in stating that I am NOT a fan of Retiring Stallions at age 3. I like to at the very least SEE the 3-4 Age Change BEFORE I retire a horse, and with RARE exception, I follow this rule regularly now, as a matter of stable policy. Further, I also carry the opinion that a breeder with good bloodlines (for the most part, as there will be SOME breeders who simply suck, period....) will either have a veery good FIRST crop, or a very good SECOND-SEASON crop of offspring.....so I would not give up on your breeders without testing them into their second-season offspring crop. New Zealand was very near AWFUL last season, but seems to have enjoyed MUCH more success this season as a Stallion. His Season 38 success will not show up on any stat sheet, but I know this personally through my own breeding.
Enjoy your stable, enjoy the game.....Feel free to comment, challenge, rebuke, confirm, or add to this post, as I really enjoy watching younger and newer stables evolve into a Multi-season "Franchise", with multiple options to produce one's very own bloodlines from their home-grown stables!
My very best, Good Luck and happy racing,
Orb