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Good Morning all,
When analyzing a race - particularly a debut race - the process is incredibly difficult. There is the initial "first run" factor, which oftentimes equates to "a horse will likely run at peak potential" in many instances....but not always of course.
So, then what can we look at to interpret a first race so as to properly place the horse for its sophomore run?
1. Splits - Did the horse show what I call "Tier 1" or "Tier 2" gate speed? I like to call it this, because when I watch the race viewer, there is an initial "gate speed" factor that takes into account the first 14 seconds of the race. Then, there is a Tier 2 gate speed, where I (maybe I am crazy) see a "Second push" gate speed factor AFTER the initial gate break - We will call it between 15 and 30 seconds......The "settling-in" time period. Determining if your horse shows EITHER, neither, or BOTH of these with an added push, relative to the rest of the field is something I look for when watching a race and/or looking at splits.
2. Gate Draw, Jockey, Jockey selection, and how the horse "BEHAVED", in lieu of these decisions - I next take into consideration HOW the horse handled the conditions, given its gate draw, the jockey instruction, and how the horse settled into the turn (and beyond), given the directive by you, the owner. Sometimes, there is simply just a BAD-luck assemblage of horses, and no matter what, your pony is going to circle turn one (or the only turn in sprints) as a 3-4 wide horse.
3. Middle Drive - Did the horse show energy mid-race, passing at least 1-2 horses while setting up for the final 1/4 of the race? I think we all-too-often blame "bad luck" when a horse sits behind a slow horse up front, stuck behind it on the rail.....I tend to believe in many instances a good horse with a competent jock will be more "proactive" in either going out wide or finding a way around a dead rail horse.....not always, but sometimes.
4. The mad dash - Did the horse finish well, REGARDLESS of race conditions throughout the race? EVEN if the horse was stuck 3-wide the whole race, did it finish well, relative to its trip?
I looked at one of my newer horses A. P. Kevlar - and this horse had perhaps an awful trip in most instances....BUT, I believe the 1 Mile race is the best and fairest race in the game, wide open, and anyone can win front to back. A. P. Kevlar ran 3-wide the whole trip, and finished STRONG. I do NOT attribute ALL of this to the "first race" boost theory, because this horse overcame a tough trip, with few options to improve her situation, with a good jock, passed horses mid-way, and finished wide, but strong.
Final analysis, this horse will move up in class, due to meeting or exceeding most or all of the criteria above.....She had a modest first gate speed rush, but a solid tier 2 push. Great in the middle of the race, and tremendous at the stretch.
Anyway, this is how I analyze horses coming out of their first race, and it often works well with placing them into their second race....Nothing here is guaranteed, and it should never be guaranteed, but the system has helped me improve my race placement....It's why you will see me drop a horse with big numbers in the A.M. to a $12k claimer sometimes, and vice versa.
Best of luck!
Orb
When analyzing a race - particularly a debut race - the process is incredibly difficult. There is the initial "first run" factor, which oftentimes equates to "a horse will likely run at peak potential" in many instances....but not always of course.
So, then what can we look at to interpret a first race so as to properly place the horse for its sophomore run?
1. Splits - Did the horse show what I call "Tier 1" or "Tier 2" gate speed? I like to call it this, because when I watch the race viewer, there is an initial "gate speed" factor that takes into account the first 14 seconds of the race. Then, there is a Tier 2 gate speed, where I (maybe I am crazy) see a "Second push" gate speed factor AFTER the initial gate break - We will call it between 15 and 30 seconds......The "settling-in" time period. Determining if your horse shows EITHER, neither, or BOTH of these with an added push, relative to the rest of the field is something I look for when watching a race and/or looking at splits.
2. Gate Draw, Jockey, Jockey selection, and how the horse "BEHAVED", in lieu of these decisions - I next take into consideration HOW the horse handled the conditions, given its gate draw, the jockey instruction, and how the horse settled into the turn (and beyond), given the directive by you, the owner. Sometimes, there is simply just a BAD-luck assemblage of horses, and no matter what, your pony is going to circle turn one (or the only turn in sprints) as a 3-4 wide horse.
3. Middle Drive - Did the horse show energy mid-race, passing at least 1-2 horses while setting up for the final 1/4 of the race? I think we all-too-often blame "bad luck" when a horse sits behind a slow horse up front, stuck behind it on the rail.....I tend to believe in many instances a good horse with a competent jock will be more "proactive" in either going out wide or finding a way around a dead rail horse.....not always, but sometimes.
4. The mad dash - Did the horse finish well, REGARDLESS of race conditions throughout the race? EVEN if the horse was stuck 3-wide the whole race, did it finish well, relative to its trip?
I looked at one of my newer horses A. P. Kevlar - and this horse had perhaps an awful trip in most instances....BUT, I believe the 1 Mile race is the best and fairest race in the game, wide open, and anyone can win front to back. A. P. Kevlar ran 3-wide the whole trip, and finished STRONG. I do NOT attribute ALL of this to the "first race" boost theory, because this horse overcame a tough trip, with few options to improve her situation, with a good jock, passed horses mid-way, and finished wide, but strong.
Final analysis, this horse will move up in class, due to meeting or exceeding most or all of the criteria above.....She had a modest first gate speed rush, but a solid tier 2 push. Great in the middle of the race, and tremendous at the stretch.
Anyway, this is how I analyze horses coming out of their first race, and it often works well with placing them into their second race....Nothing here is guaranteed, and it should never be guaranteed, but the system has helped me improve my race placement....It's why you will see me drop a horse with big numbers in the A.M. to a $12k claimer sometimes, and vice versa.
Best of luck!
Orb
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