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Orb's Oracle - Season 39

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  • Orb's Oracle - Season 39

    Morning, morning, morning all!

    Looking back as last night's racing calendar, my favorite thing to do on Sprint Qualifer night......I always want to see how I would fare if I wagered on 1-2-4 Exacta boxes in EVERY Qualifier. I'd be a wealthy man (I am not anymore, for I have an ex-wife, LOL)...... All kidding aside:

    Sprint Qualifiers, Stakes Races, etc...... The lane needs to be opened up is my solution, like harness racing, in this race engine, as:
    1. Horses can't get through WAY too often
    2. The Rail is WAY to Gulfstream ERRR important
    3. It would allow horses to spread out in the stretch, and many horses have added room coming around the stretch

    Route to Sprint, and Sprint to Route in consecutive Races:
    I would exercise caution when moving your horse from one to the other in consecutive races, as my own stable research (I have been too lazy and too broke this season to have the energy to draw from a bigger sample - energy level is negative at the moment)....Anyway, I believe it changes the horse's use of its maximum meters capacity, and funny things happen. I REALLY like that this happens, because it mirrors REAL racing.......We cannot just arbitrarily ask Usain Bolt to run a Mile after running a 100 Meter.....He MIGHT be able to catch 200M, and since he is the best in the world, even the max sprint 400M, but nothing further. Same with horses, and I can ask you to open ANY DRF and look at mediocre trainers who RUIN horses doing this.

    On the same note, Surface Changes might have a more Subtle, Nuanced Effect
    Turf to Dirt, and Dirt to Turf, I LEARNED something this season that has been in EVERY "how-to-guide" since Jesus was a carpenter. I am not going to give this one away entirely, but let's just say they are different surfaces, sometimes requiring even changes to either Meds or Tack! Remember, Is it not a Generally-Known fact that dirt races depict a speed duel in the first half of the race (regardless of distance) and a fight to "hang on" for the finish.....while Turf races are "Dull Trots" in the first half of the race, and a "Speed Competition" in the closing 2 furlongs? CLEARLY, this difference in surface requires changes.....Can you think of ways to make your horse best-fit to win on the specific track, distance, and SURFACE?

    Gelding; Back-Class
    Too many....... Going back to above, look at any DRF......horses have cycles.....They show runs of form, and they show "BACK CLASS"......sometimes some VERY serious successful back-class.....yet we dismiss it as a considerably less important factor than the "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" run of form. A Lot of horses' wins leave us scratching our collective heads, but the results predominantly make sense when we look at back-class....Several horse we consider as "finished" are rather completing a cycle of poor form.....Then through certain methods (I have mine, you have your methods), we get horses to - as Greeko states and I agree - regain their momentum.....and voila, they win a Big race as a 7-1 horse.........Despite back-class suggesting 7-1 was probably easy money!

    While We are on the subject, CLASS
    If a horse is running well, KEEP moving it up up up! Take a look at an example:

    FRACTURED - This horse is a Gelded Create, and I had a bit of hope for him, so I set the bar in the middle....MSW, simple $2250 MSW though..... I thought he was a create gelding, so I could "give you all the slip", and sneak him through a "Create-Only" $20k Claiming race...He won with ease....THEN, I moved him to OPEN COMPANY claiming $38,500, and again he found the winner's circle, stretching this young horse's legs just a tad, based on his relatively modest/slow middle fraction in 1M training, but very good 1M final time.

    Make Friends and Partnerships
    This should be the first item on the list, but it goes a long way, so I thought it would be best kept in the noggin if I wrote it last....... Make relationships and partnerships, and you never know what sort of discount you might get on a sale, a purchase, or a breed-for-breed trade straight-up, at no cost either way. There are many long-time friendships and mutual partners who look to each other if they can provide a much-needed sprinter stallion for instance, and the examples abound...... Stick your head out, and you never know what might help you down the road!

    Good Luck, and Happy Racing!

    My Very Best,

    Orb
    Last edited by Orb Farms; 04-04-2018, 03:03 PM. Reason: Typo and Grammar errors, as per usual
    - Orb Farms

  • #2
    Nice read Orb, and some very interesting perspective on many of factors facing trainers placing horses to perform at their best.

    Cheers

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    • #3
      Great to see the " Oracles " on the return. Some good thoughts in there Orb. And give Billy Shears a cheer for me on the 7th!

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      • #4
        Three Cheers for Billy Sheers!

        Best of luck!

        Orb
        - Orb Farms

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