Post Position Data - The "It All Evens Out" Theory

[Orb Farms]

[EDIT this is not cherry picking - these are MY biggest races, and I Did include the 3 GOOD posts from the 16 I got at bottom)


I want to say that I have not complained about post positions in a fit of anger or immaturity in ages, and this is NOT one either,

BUT, I went thru this young season, and I plucked out my SIXTEEN HIGHEST PURSE RACES....

Here are my Gate assignments, spanning nearly a MILLION credits over these 16 races up for grabs:


Hourglass DD MSW 01/26 $49,000 PP11

Ecko Queen TCR 01/27 $32,400 PP8

Thespian AlW 01/22 $25,000 PP5

Azeri DDCQ 01/25 $64,000 PP7

Dramatically ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP8

Krugerrand ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP7

Nile Delta ALW 01/22 $28,000 PP8

Socks CR 01/28 $79,000 PP10

Constance TCR 01/24 $54,000 PP8

Orb Soup Cold Dog 01/23 $150,000 PP10

Pulpit ALW 01/17 $34,000 PP9

Johannesburg MSW 01/08 $78,200 PP11

Theatrical Pension 01/04 $88,000 PP5

(Also Includes Azeri PP1, Azeri PP1 (Both Eliminators) and PP4 on a $38,000 DD MSW recently)


As you see, I ONLY wanted to see how I fared in the IMPORTANT races.....as it would be a joke and a FARCE to include a 3-horse create $1k race with THESE races.

Tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough assignments, and to my shock and surpruse, I actually won Exaclty ONE race from Gate 11 (Hourglass), as you all might have seen recently

I think the randomizer needs to SEPARATE BIG (Group 1) Races from Crap races....as this is a TON of credits pi$$ed away with 4-wide trips, REGARDLESS of EVERY tactic I have used to NOT be 4 or 5 or 10 wide.

Regards

Orb

[Polaris Bloodstock]

Feeling your pain Orb...been down that road my friend. Just work through it and the tide will turn. I do not know how the post positions are assigned and this might just be a coincidence, but when I nominate very late I often seem to get an outside position. Keep an eye on it.

[Orb Farms]

Thanks man....a MILLION credits at stake, and I KNEW in advance that three quarters of a million credits were NOT mine for the taking....THAT.....Is.....frustrating.

[EDIT - and Polaris, I am FAMOUS for being the perennial EARLIEST nominator LOL]... who knows, but I appreciate the kind words!

Best to you,

Orb

[Winning Ways]

Polaris your observation about late entry and outside draw rings true,as i have also noticed this happens a lot with me.

[King G Racing]

Not To knock this thread but being hung n pushed even wider is a part of real racing as it is here... I don't think the gate draws need to be different in big races and not the Crap races as you call them... Doesn't matter if a guy puts up 1 dollar or 100.00 dollars Money is money... Post are Draw in real life by hand and I also know it sucks to get the outside post.. In almost all my final race I have ever ran I get hung. Hate it but cant change it.... So to change that for any race is totally unfair and don't think it can be done anyway..I do how ever have always though that the sytem could look at the horses past post and not repeat it self and to go thru the gate draws for so many races n then start over. But don't think that could be done either... JMO on this...

[South Jersey Stables]

Feeling your pain Orb...been down that road my friend. Just work through it and the tide will turn. I do not know how the post positions are assigned and this might just be a coincidence, but when I nominate very late I often seem to get an outside position. Keep an eye on it.

I nominated Free Charlie yesterday, at the time as the 5th of what is now a 6 horse field today in race 12, and drew the 2nd position. For every late entry outside draw I'm sure you can find a late entry inside draw. In all my years here I've yet to notice any late entry penalty in terms of a draw. I can't imagine an algorithm that would be created in the programming to allow this. If the system has 6 horses, they are randomly assigned with a simple code. Anything more detailed than that, including entry times, dates, favored stables, etc, would be not only a useless bit of coding, but make no logic sense imo.

[Lone Star Stables]

[EDIT this is not cherry picking - these are MY biggest races, and I Did include the 3 GOOD posts from the 16 I got at bottom)


:


Hourglass DD MSW 01/26 $49,000 PP11

11 PP won

Ecko Queen TCR 01/27 $32,400 PP8

2PP won

Thespian AlW 01/22 $25,000 PP5

3PP won

Azeri DDCQ 01/25 $64,000 PP7

2pp won

Dramatically ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP8

6pp won

Krugerrand ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP7

4pp won

Nile Delta ALW 01/22 $28,000 PP8

7PP won

Socks CR 01/28 $79,000 PP10
still hasn't ran

Constance TCR 01/24 $54,000 PP8

3pp won

Orb Soup Cold Dog 01/23 $150,000 PP10

8th pp won

Pulpit ALW 01/17 $34,000 PP9

3pp won

Johannesburg MSW 01/08 $78,200 PP11

7pp won

Theatrical Pension 01/04 $88,000 PP5

4thpp won


(Also Includes Azeri PP1, Azeri PP1 (Both Eliminators) and PP4 on a $38,000 DD MSW recently)



Orb

Not one 1pp won .

right now the code doesn't care the stable,horse,past post,when entered, entry or any other issue .It is completely random . It is a slippery slope if we try to make everything even .we are trying to make it not matter that much what post you get . there is bias and will always be biased . only way to prevent this is to maybe run on a straight track . you also loose the strategy of jockey instruction .

[South Jersey Stables]

[EDIT this is not cherry picking - these are MY biggest races, and I Did include the 3 GOOD posts from the 16 I got at bottom)


I want to say that I have not complained about post positions in a fit of anger or immaturity in ages, and this is NOT one either,

BUT, I went thru this young season, and I plucked out my SIXTEEN HIGHEST PURSE RACES....

Here are my Gate assignments, spanning nearly a MILLION credits over these 16 races up for grabs:


Hourglass DD MSW 01/26 $49,000 PP11

Ecko Queen TCR 01/27 $32,400 PP8

Thespian AlW 01/22 $25,000 PP5

Azeri DDCQ 01/25 $64,000 PP7

Dramatically ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP8

Krugerrand ALW 01/27 $27,000 PP7

Nile Delta ALW 01/22 $28,000 PP8

Socks CR 01/28 $79,000 PP10

Constance TCR 01/24 $54,000 PP8

Orb Soup Cold Dog 01/23 $150,000 PP10

Pulpit ALW 01/17 $34,000 PP9

Johannesburg MSW 01/08 $78,200 PP11

Theatrical Pension 01/04 $88,000 PP5

(Also Includes Azeri PP1, Azeri PP1 (Both Eliminators) and PP4 on a $38,000 DD MSW recently)


As you see, I ONLY wanted to see how I fared in the IMPORTANT races.....as it would be a joke and a FARCE to include a 3-horse create $1k race with THESE races.

Tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough assignments, and to my shock and surpruse, I actually won Exaclty ONE race from Gate 11 (Hourglass), as you all might have seen recently

I think the randomizer needs to SEPARATE BIG (Group 1) Races from Crap races....as this is a TON of credits pi$$ed away with 4-wide trips, REGARDLESS of EVERY tactic I have used to NOT be 4 or 5 or 10 wide.

Regards

Orb

As a whole, I agree you've had some unlucky draws for sure. To be fair, you did get more than just 3 #1-4 posts in big races:

A.p. Tones 1/7 PP #3 35k
Eye of the leopard 1/10 PP #2 32k
Frosted 1/12 PP #4 73k
Frosted 1/15 PP #4 31k
Riborbot 1/21 PP #1 43k

Also some of the big races above you listed had outside post winners, like the 150k CDS Futurity, went 8-3-9-7

But with that said, the majority of your post draws have been crap, totally agree. My question is, what do you think can be "done" about that? You are viewing this from your perspective only, and for each of your bad draws, other people have been lucky enough to have good draws. What changes do you think should be made to a random draw that would make this system more fair? Yes, it sucks to be on the outside. We've all been there, sometimes you go through streaks where it's all you get. But if you eliminate poor draws and bias, you are back to either just having 4 horse races with no purses, or just calculating straight race results, like a 4f shute that goes a mile instead.

[And More Racing Stable]

The post position draw should never be anything but completely random. We all go thru streaks of good draws and bad draws. I haven't evaluated my recent post draws so I can't back it up by statistics, nor do I care to, but I know recently it seems like when I look at an entry most of the time I've been thinking "damn another outside draw" but it's part of the game. At some point it all evens out. I understand how frustrating it is when in a streak of consistently drawing outside but nothing should be changed. It should never be anything other than completely random.

[Greeko Holdem]

Just be thankful you can scratch your horse here if you don't like your post draw or meters. Other sites give you the big shaft.

[Orb Farms]

Somehow I knew you would respond John, the voice of reason.......Trust me when I say you probably are sitting highest atop the perch, as no one is within a country mile of your good fortune, spanning back thru early November!

Continued good luck my friend!

Orb

[Ryan Express]

This isn't a response to anyone, just an observation:

Humans should all be required to read "Fooled by Randomness." We all want to spot patterns. Humans instinctively spot patterns where randomness controls. Worse, even when educated, most people are simply incapable of accepting randomness.
How did Vegas, for example, double revenue from roulette? It put up the boards showing what numbers had come up previously. People think they can spot patterns because they dramatically underestimate the number of runs in random distributions. In fact, if you give a group a students an assignment to flip a coin 1000 times, you can easily tell who cheated because those who just make up the results create patterns with so few runs that they are obviously contrived.

Bad and good runs of post positions will occur. Very frequently. If they didn't, they wouldn't be random.