Announcement

**Trunoble Lodge** · 05-05-2020, 08:18 AM

Orbviously you have forgotten the orbligatory sacrifice to the DD Gods. If you don't do this, you will orbserve a continual orbstacle of orbsessively bad draws,Otherwise it will always look like a Fiborbnacci Sequence.

Norm

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 07:46 AM

TRUTH, after my nearly 10,000 races:

You get CRAP posts, you get crap results (and an obligatory response from admin that skews the truth by posting irrelevant data) that completely misses the point.

***NOT GOSPEL, but over LONG periods of time, this is ABSOLUTELY true in my research ****

A day here, a week there, even a month over there will prove an anomaly.....but over 10,000 races, it is undeniable.

Now, take into consideration the VERY BIG races...particularly SPRINTS.....and:

You get crap posts, and you get crap results, AND a smaller pocketbook.

Fact.

Orbvus Factotis

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 07:48 AM

Many times I had my MOST PROMISING horse in my barn [edit] DEBUT with 7 or even EIGHT posts as such in sprints:

3-5-3-3-7-5-7-3-3

Guess what? I either gelded (did not want to), put in claimers (and it got claimed), or retired. AND I lost all the money from these races, with a 1:08.69 type juvenile with good breeding.

The great financial equalizer.......

Orbvus Economos

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:18 AM

**** I HAD TO CHOP THIS UP OR IT WOULD NOT POST, APOLOGIES ****

When we are fortunate enough to draw a good post, we NEED NOT worry nearly so much about track bias, and particularly in gate 1 and often 2 &4, we need not worry as much about track bias. For these 3 posts, we really do not need to pay attention - say, to a field of 9-10 horses - to the potential decisions of the horse owners who drew gates 5-6-7-8-9 or 10.

So, in summary, to spew out statistical drivel that does not address these inequities simply ignores the question, and diverts the underlying argument away, steering it to artificial, data-driven charts that do not even come near to addressing this issue.

I will state it clearly one more time:

IF you draw a good post, you need NOT worry NEARLY as much about track bias, race engine nuances, and the jockey decisions of other players. If you draw poorly, you MUST "win the day" on all 3 fronts, in order to even hit the board....period.

That seems a bit awkward, but my data suggests it is overwhelmingly true.

I am not the gospel; I use my data...so,my post should be deemed an editorial, not the truth.

Here are 4 OR 5 of many, many examples.... and of course, there are, was, and will always be exceptions...anomalies, etc...

HORSE #1

05/06/20-C16

Calder DD

Turf fm

1m = 1600m

22.74 45.80 1:35.53

fClm10000

3 4¹ 3¹ 6¹

108

94

Velazquez J

(SR)

V

120

hst

8

04/18/20-C10

Calder DD

Turf fm

1 1/8m = 1800m

46.45 1:10.99 1:48.94

fAlw

3 2^nk 2^nk 6²

109

95

Velazquez J

(P)

V

116

hst

7

04/15/20-C32

Calder DD

Turf fm

1m = 1600m

22.55 45.43 1:35.20

fAlw

4 4³ 5⁴ 2^nk

109

97

Velazquez J

(S)

V

116

hst

5

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:19 AM

HORSE #2

Workouts:

01May20

Calder DD

Dirt fst

6.0f

22.20 45.03 1:08.70

1 1 1 1

Franco M(P)

BV

120

hst

01May20

Calder DD

Dirt fst

1m

22.97 46.17 1:35.56

1 1 1 1

Franco M(C)

BV

120

hst

Races with awesome post gates:

05/05/20-C35

Calder DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

21.93 44.51 1:08.19

fAlw

6 8³ 7⁴ 4²

108

97

Castellano J

(JD)

BV

120

hst

8

05/02/20-B15

Belmont DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

22.00 44.59 1:08.22

fAlw

3 4² 4⁴ 3^hd

110

98

Velazquez J

(SR)

BV

120

hst

6

04/28/20-C32

Calder DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

21.66 44.16 1:08.31

fOClm10000

6 7⁵ 5⁶ 3^nk

111

98

Ortiz I. Jr

(S)

V

120

hst

7

04/22/20-B2

Belmont DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

21.75 44.20 1:07.87

fAlw

7 4² 5⁵ 5³

107

96

Ortiz I. Jr

(JD)

BV

119

hst

7

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:19 AM

HORSE #3 (KEEP IN MIND HIS ONE LONE "GOOD DRAW OF GATE 4 WAS IN A 4-HORSE RACE LOL)

05/05/20-C18

Calder DD

Turf fm

1m = 1600m

22.85 45.95 1:35.21

fAlw

5 6³ 6⁴ 6²

107

95

Castellano J

(P)

LV

122

hst

7

05/03/20-C22

Calder DD

Turf fm

1m = 1600m

22.44 45.26 1:35.16

fAlw

9 10⁷ 10⁹ 6²

107

95

Velazquez J

(S)

LV

122

hst

10

04/18/20-C6

Calder DD

Turf fm

1m = 1600m

22.82 45.90 1:35.41

fOpenAlw

3 3² 3³ 3¹

107

95

Ortiz J. L

(P)

LV

120

hs

3

04/11/20-B17

Belmont DD

Turf fm

1 1/8m = 1800m

46.67 1:11.31 1:48.40

SSA

3 6³ 6³ 8²

111

95

Velazquez J

(P)

LV

120

hst

9

04/08/20-B2

Belmont DD

Turf fm

1 1/4m = 2000m

47.43 1:12.13 2:02.57

fAlw

4 1¹ 1^nk 2¹

109

96

Ortiz I. Jr

(P)

LV

119

hst

4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:24 AM

FINALLY, EXAMPLE HORSE #4

I will make it easy for you: Gates 4-7-3-4-5-3-6-3-3-4-1-4-5-3 (9 times from 14, gate 3-5-7+beyond?) yikes!

NOTICE the "coincidence" when this horse drew gates 1, 2, or 4....the results are very good. Conversely, observe the poor results from most ANY other post, with few (if any) exceptions....

14 races, and the best 3 results were a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd....from Gates 1, 2, and 4.

05/05/20-C37

Calder DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

21.85 44.53 1:08.34

fAlw

3 4² 4³ 7²

101

96

Ortiz J. L

(S)

BLV

120

hst

8

04/27/20-C9

Calder DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

22.02 44.71 1:08.66

fClm5000

5 5³ 4⁴ 4¹

102

96

Bridgmohan S

(S)

BLV

120

hs

6

04/24/20-C9

Calder DD

Dirt fst

7f = 1400m

22.36 45.19 1:21.47

fClm5000

4 6³ 6⁴ 3²

102

96

Bridgmohan S

(SR)

BLV

120

hs

6

04/22/20-C31

Calder DD

Dirt fst

5f = 1000m

21.91 44.44 57.53

fMdC5000

1 2^hd 1^hd 1^hd

111

97

Bridgmohan S

(P)

BLV

120

hs

5

04/20/20-C32

Calder DD

Dirt fst

5f = 1000m

22.11 44.75 57.88

fMdC5000

4 4² 4² 4¹

102

95

Bridgmohan S

(P)

BLV

120

hs

4

04/13/20-C3

Calder DD

Dirt fst

1 3/8m = 2200m

47.45 1:12.28 2:17.96

fMdC5000

3 1¹ 1² 6⁴

101

91

Bridgmohan S

(C)

BLV

120

hs

6

04/05/20-C35

Calder DD

Dirt fst

1m = 1600m

22.84 46.00 1:35.51

fMdC5000

3 4¹ 4² 6²

102

93

Prat F

(SR)

BLV

120

hs

7

03/26/20-C1

Calder DD

Dirt fst

7f = 1400m

22.38 45.17 1:21.54

fMdSpWt

6 9² 9⁴ 5²

102

96

Prat F

(S)

BLV

120

hs

10

03/06/20-C3

Calder DD

Dirt fst

7f = 1400m

22.36 45.23 1:21.80

fMdC5000

3 4¹ 3² 3¹

102

95

Prat F

(S)

BLV

120

hs

7

03/03/20-C32

Calder DD

Dirt fst

1m = 1600m

22.93 46.12 1:35.56

fOClm10000

5 5² 7³ 3^hd

102

96

Ortiz J. L

(SR)

BLV

118

hs

7

02/02/20-C21

Calder DD

Turf fm

7f = 1400m

22.50 45.49 1:21.84

fMdC12000

4 5² 5³ 2^nk

102

96

Ortiz J. L

(SR)

BLV

120

hs

5

01/20/20-B26

Belmont DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

21.86 44.40 1:08.11

fMdSpWt

2 3¹ 3³ 2^nk

111

98

Gaffalione T

(S)

BLV

120

hs

4

01/13/20-B1

Belmont DD

Dirt fst

6f = 1200m

22.33 45.24 1:08.24

fMdSpWt

7 8² 7² 3¹

102

96

Velazquez J

(P)

BLV

120

hs

8

01/08/20-B34

Belmont DD

Dirt fst

1m = 1600m

22.28 44.98 1:34.73

ElimR1

4 7³ 7⁶ 7²

101

95

Maragh R

(SR)

BLV

120

hs

9

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:27 AM

Oh, and WHAT MIGHT UFOrb have been in his debut/juvenile season, were it not for him needing to PERFECTLY OUTWIT the game engine, track bias, AND all of the other players' JOCKEY DECISIONS, due to the poor post positions?

Granted, he was savy and talented enough to overcome the race engine, the track bias, AND the other players' decisions, and yet he still fared pretty well. Unfortunately, this RARE exception and anomaly is the basis for the counterargument.....unfortunately, 1 of these occurs in every x100 non-anomalies....

05/04/20-C35

Calder DD

Turf fm

5f = 1000m

21.74 44.15 57.23

fAlw

4 3¹ 3¹ 2^nk

107

98

Napravnik R

(P)

LV

120

h

8

05/02/20-B13

Belmont DD

Turf fm

6f = 1200m

21.72 44.45 1:08.25

fClm30000

7 1¹ 1¹ 5¹

108

97

Ortiz J. L

(S)

LV

122

h

8

04/30/20-B1

Belmont DD

Turf fm

6f = 1200m

21.95 44.71 1:08.00

OpenAlw

5 3^nk 2^hd 2¹

109

98

Velazquez J

(S)

LV

120

h

7

04/21/20-C10

Calder DD

Turf fm

5f = 1000m

21.71 44.19 57.38

fAlw

5 6² 5² 2^hd

108

98

Ortiz I. Jr

(C)

LV

120

h

7

04/17/20-C36

Calder DD

Turf fm

6f = 1200m

22.00 44.68 1:08.27

fAlw

3 1^hd 1^hd 1^nk

109

99

Velazquez J

(S)

LV

118

h

- Orbvus Sanctum Sanctorum

**Orb Farms** · 05-07-2020, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Trunoble Lodge View Post

Orbviously you have forgotten the orbligatory sacrifice to the DD Gods. If you don't do this, you will orbserve a continual orbstacle of orbsessively bad draws,Otherwise it will always look like a Fiborbnacci Sequence.

Norm

You got me Norm.....I was on 2-minute delay, and then caught all Orbisms!

As always, you are the resident GOD!

Much love pardner,

And now I am ready for the Digital Race Gods to rebuke me to Fiery Damnation for speaking so candidly!!!!

Orbvus Erectus

**Digital Downs** · 05-07-2020, 10:02 AM

Since you are ready.....

There will be no Damnation. Our policy allows for open communication until obvious lines are crossed. So feel free to use the forum as a platform to communicate.

With that being said, I find it important to knock down flawed theories. I will simply state that there is NO gate bias. If anything there may be some running lane plus and minuses that are also impacted by horse ability like speed and instructions that may impact opening splits and the beginning set up of the race that will no doubt have impact on the outcome. Has little to do with the gate you draw and more to do with everything after that. That is just a fact. The finish, as someone told me yesterday, creates the perception of a gate impact....not the start! They call me a myth buster for a reason.

Now i will follow this up with some sprint stats of my own for you all to chew on. Data is cool!

Cheers!

**Polaris Bloodstock** · 05-07-2020, 10:08 AM

Orb, i always love your work..heres what i see, Stay right away from Velasquez, he has lost his punching power and more so on the Turf. His figures are POOR POOR and POORER. Go in and have a look at his figures this season, and look at all of them, Look at his Dirt figures, his Turf figures..his figures for each dist ance and so on. Castellano seems to have a bit of Corona as well,but his figures stack up better than JV's...find other jocks for a start..just my opinion buddy!

**Digital Downs** · 05-07-2020, 10:13 AM

5F Belmont Dirt (the track everyone says not to run 5F on

5 Horse Races 6

Spot 1 Wins :	2
Spot 2 Wins :	2
Spot 3 Wins :	2

6 Horse Races :

4

Spot 1 Wins :	1
Spot 2 Wins :	1
Spot 4 Wins :	1
Spot 6 Wins :	1

8 Horse Races :

1

Spot 4 Wins :

1

**Digital Downs** · 05-07-2020, 10:14 AM

5F Cal Dirt

Spot Search

Length : 4f 5f 6f 7f 1m 1 1/8m 1 1/4m 1 3/8m 1 1/2m

Track : Dirt SA Dirt CAL Turf CAL Dirt BEL Turf BEL

Select Start Date :

Select End Date :

Search Results

3 Horse Races :

54

Spot 1 Wins :	18
Spot 2 Wins :	16
Spot 3 Wins :	20

4 Horse Races :

59

Spot 1 Wins :	14
Spot 2 Wins :	19
Spot 3 Wins :	14
Spot 4 Wins :	12

5 Horse Races :

107

Spot 1 Wins :	26
Spot 2 Wins :	27
Spot 3 Wins :	17
Spot 4 Wins :	17
Spot 5 Wins :	20

6 Horse Races :

82

Spot 1 Wins :	14
Spot 2 Wins :	17
Spot 3 Wins :	19
Spot 4 Wins :	10
Spot 5 Wins :	17
Spot 6 Wins :	5

7 Horse Races :

56

Spot 1 Wins :	8
Spot 2 Wins :	13
Spot 3 Wins :	6
Spot 4 Wins :	8
Spot 5 Wins :	12
Spot 6 Wins :	4
Spot 7 Wins :	5

8 Horse Races :

23

Spot 1 Wins :	1
Spot 2 Wins :	5
Spot 3 Wins :	6
Spot 4 Wins :	3
Spot 5 Wins :	5
Spot 6 Wins :	2
Spot 7 Wins :	1

9 Horse Races :

9

Spot 2 Wins :	1
Spot 3 Wins :	1
Spot 4 Wins :	1
Spot 5 Wins :	4
Spot 6 Wins :	1
Spot 7 Wins :	1

10 Horse Races :

7

Spot 1 Wins :	1
Spot 2 Wins :	2
Spot 3 Wins :	2
Spot 6 Wins :	1
Spot 10 Wins :	1

**Digital Downs** · 05-07-2020, 10:16 AM

Spot Search

5F Cal Turf

Length : 4f 5f 6f 7f 1m 1 1/8m 1 1/4m 1 3/8m 1 1/2m

Track : Dirt SA Dirt CAL Turf CAL Dirt BEL Turf BEL

Select Start Date :

Select End Date :

Search Results

2 Horse Races :

2

Spot 2 Wins :

2

3 Horse Races :

19

Spot 1 Wins :	8
Spot 2 Wins :	6
Spot 3 Wins :	5

4 Horse Races :

35

Spot 1 Wins :	11
Spot 2 Wins :	11
Spot 3 Wins :	6
Spot 4 Wins :	7

5 Horse Races :

47

Spot 1 Wins :	6
Spot 2 Wins :	10
Spot 3 Wins :	12
Spot 4 Wins :	10
Spot 5 Wins :	9

6 Horse Races :

47

Spot 1 Wins :	6
Spot 2 Wins :	6
Spot 3 Wins :	11
Spot 4 Wins :	3
Spot 5 Wins :	16
Spot 6 Wins :	5

7 Horse Races :

34

Spot 1 Wins :	4
Spot 2 Wins :	5
Spot 3 Wins :	4
Spot 4 Wins :	8
Spot 5 Wins :	7
Spot 6 Wins :	4
Spot 7 Wins :	2

8 Horse Races :

23

Spot 1 Wins :	7
Spot 2 Wins :	8
Spot 3 Wins :	1
Spot 4 Wins :	2
Spot 5 Wins :	3
Spot 6 Wins :	1
Spot 8 Wins :	1

9 Horse Races :

4

Spot 2 Wins :	2
Spot 3 Wins :	1
Spot 6 Wins :	1

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