Handicappers and casual horse racing fans rejoice! The Kentucky Derby is finally upon us. Returning to its proper place on the 1st Saturday in May, the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is set to go to post at 6:57pm on May 1, 2021. This full 20 horse field of Contenders and Pretenders is the most wide open field in a decade. The worldwide pandemic's effect on the Run to the Roses is unprecedented, with the 20th horse in the field getting in with just 10 points and no Also-eligibles. All the traditional Derby betting angles need to be thrown out. There's really no historical precedent, in my opinion, to draw from to get an angle this year.
The weather for Saturday is setting up perfectly. Louisville should see some rain Wednesday into Thursday. A warming, partly cloudy Friday should dry things out. Saturday should be an absolute stunner with temps in the 70's and tons of sun. The track should set up and be running fairly on Saturday with no speed bias, which is critically important this year. Why is that? Nearly half of the field needs a front running pace to have any chance to hit the board.
Let's take a deeper dive into the field....
Likely Winners
All that being said, how do I see things playing out? (8) Medina Spirit stalks a hot pace with a clean, ground saving trip. Digs down in the stretch and holds off a hard charging (1) Known Agenda to win the Kentucky Derby. (7) Mandaloun fades from the lead and holds on to Show, with (5) Sainthood rallying hard and winning a group photo to place 4th.
Calling it cold... 8-1-7-5
Realistically, to have a shot at cashing a ticket from the Derby, you're gonna have to dig deep in your pockets this year. From Exacta to Superfecta my tickets will look something like this,,,
So, who are you backing? What are your thoughts?
The weather for Saturday is setting up perfectly. Louisville should see some rain Wednesday into Thursday. A warming, partly cloudy Friday should dry things out. Saturday should be an absolute stunner with temps in the 70's and tons of sun. The track should set up and be running fairly on Saturday with no speed bias, which is critically important this year. Why is that? Nearly half of the field needs a front running pace to have any chance to hit the board.
Let's take a deeper dive into the field....
Likely Winners
- (1) Known Agenda - Has the stamina in his pedigree to win this. Still improving colt with the highest ceiling in the field, not to mention Irad in the saddle. His stalking style will set him up well from the 1 hole.
- (8) Medina Spirit - Has a bit of seconditis, but also a ton of heart. I think the extra distance helps and his stalking style will have him ready to pounce when the front runners falter.
- (9) Hot Rod Charlie - One of the many front runners. Has shown his ability to handle a route with speed with his win in the Louisiana Derby. He'll be fighting down the stretch.
- (11) Dynamic One - Patiently brought along by Todd Pletcher. This colt is fresh and ready to fire. He will be closing hard, and with a clean trip, could win by open lengths running past tiring horses.
- (15) Rock Your World - Will fire on all cylinders right to the front. Has tons of speed. Could wire this field with the right race set up. Still a very green, inexperienced colt and could burn up before hitting the stretch. Joel Rosario has his hands full.
- (5) Sainthood - Still improving. Has handled traffic before. This year's "Good Vibes" horse. He'll be rallying late.
- (6) O Besos - The other buzz horse this year. Will be closing late. Needs a hot pace to set him up.
- (7) Mandaloun - The Louisiana Derby was fast and he bounced. I'm tossing that race. He'll go to the lead, he'll be tiring... still gotta have him in your exotics.
- (14) Essential Quality - Very nice Colt. M/L favorite and deservedly so. 5 runs, 5 wins. Will be making noise all summer. Needs a dream trip to get the distance. Won't get it Saturday.
- (17) Highly Motivated - Another going to the front. Just missed beating Essential Quality in the Blue Grass, will finish ahead of him in the Derby. Still improving.
- (10) Midnight Bourbon, (12) Helium, (16) King Fury - Every year, there's a horse that wrecks your dreams by sneaking into your exotics. Any one of these 3 is probably it. The probable front running pace will set up the closers. Could add some value to the payout if included underneath in your exotics.
All that being said, how do I see things playing out? (8) Medina Spirit stalks a hot pace with a clean, ground saving trip. Digs down in the stretch and holds off a hard charging (1) Known Agenda to win the Kentucky Derby. (7) Mandaloun fades from the lead and holds on to Show, with (5) Sainthood rallying hard and winning a group photo to place 4th.
Calling it cold... 8-1-7-5
Realistically, to have a shot at cashing a ticket from the Derby, you're gonna have to dig deep in your pockets this year. From Exacta to Superfecta my tickets will look something like this,,,
1,8,9,11,15 / 1,8,9,11,15 / 1,5,6,7,8,9,11,14,15,17 / 1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17
Which equates to a $5 EX BX ($100), and a $.50 TRI KEY ($80).
I'm still up in the air on my Superfecta, due to cost. Not sure how many of my Bad Beats to include, if any. Right now my $.50 SPR is anywhere from $560 to $800, which doesn't provide enough value with my selections. I probably won't even place my SPR bet until the post parade, where I'd like to get it down to $400-$500.So, who are you backing? What are your thoughts?
Comment